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FGUS74 KCRP 211446

ESFCRP

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX

946 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024



...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range

probabilistic outlook for the Guadalupe River Basin in South Texas...





The Corpus Christi Texas National Weather Service Office has

implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the

Guadalupe River Basin in South Texas. AHPS enables the

National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic

outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet.





In the table below...The 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the

chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the

next 90 days. Example: The Guadalupe River at Victoria has a

flood stage of 21 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Victoria

forecast point will rise above

25.8 feet

during the next 90 days.





        Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations

                  Valid 03/20/2024 - 06/18/2024





Location       FS(ft)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

--------       ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

Guadalupe River

 Victoria        21.0   6.6  8.7 13.4 17.8 25.8 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.6

 Bloomington     20.0  11.3 16.4 19.6 23.0 25.0 25.3 25.5 26.0 26.6





Coleto Creek

 Arnold Road Cr. 15.0   4.5  4.5  4.5  6.6 10.2 10.6 12.7 13.2 15.2

 Hwy 59 Victoria 25.0   5.1  5.4  9.3 10.5 11.6 14.0 14.8 17.0 19.1





This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are

calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical

climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take

into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.

by providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...The

level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can

be determined.





Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the

Internet at: 

 https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=crp





Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third

Thursday of every month.





$$