####018002778#### FGUS74 KHGX 211455 ESFHGX 220255- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX 955 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Lavaca-Navidad River Basin in Southeast Texas... The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Lavaca-Navidad River Basin in Southeast Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Navidad River at Strane Park has a flood stage of 24 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Strane Park forecast point will rise above 22.6 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations Valid 03/20/2024 - 06/18/2024 Location fs(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Tres Palacios River Midfield 24.0 6.2 12.7 15.2 17.5 19.2 21.1 24.3 26.5 28.8 Sandy Creek Cordele 18.0 7.5 8.9 10.8 13.1 13.9 15.2 15.8 16.9 19.3 East Mustang Creek Louise 19.0 7.5 8.6 10.4 10.9 12.5 13.0 13.7 15.8 21.7 West Mustang Creek Ganado 20.0 9.1 10.4 12.0 13.2 14.4 14.8 15.1 16.0 17.6 Navidad River Sublime 24.0 6.6 8.4 11.2 17.7 18.7 20.4 21.8 26.0 28.5 Speaks 24.0 5.5 7.6 10.9 17.9 19.3 20.3 21.3 23.7 27.9 Morales 29.0 10.0 12.2 18.2 21.7 23.4 26.8 28.0 29.6 32.9 Strane Park 24.0 8.3 10.6 16.1 21.0 22.6 25.1 26.1 26.7 29.9 Lavaca River Hallettesville 27.0 5.8 7.6 9.7 11.7 12.3 13.5 14.2 14.9 16.6 Edna 21.0 8.9 13.6 16.4 19.8 20.9 22.5 23.7 24.4 25.1 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=hgx (internet address is all lower case). Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$ ####018002784#### FGUS74 KHGX 211458 ESFHGX 220257- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX 958 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the San Jacinto River Basin in Southeast Texas... The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the San Jacinto River Basin in Southeast Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The San Jacinto river near Conroe has a flood stage of 115.8 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Conroe forecast point will rise above 102.8 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations Valid 03/20/2024 - 06/18/2024 Location fs(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ------------------------------------------------------------------ East Fork San Jacinto River Cleveland 19.0 5.5 8.6 9.9 10.8 11.9 13.1 13.7 15.6 17.4 New Caney 58.0 47.1 50.2 51.2 52.9 53.5 55.5 58.6 60.9 64.4 Caney Creek Splendora 17.0 4.5 7.8 8.1 9.7 10.3 11.5 12.3 15.2 19.8 Peach Creek Splendora 14.0 5.1 6.4 7.4 7.9 9.0 10.7 11.3 13.5 15.5 West Fork San Jacinto River Conroe 115.8 95.9 97.2 99.1 100.8 102.8 103.2 104.3 106.8 114.7 Porter 81.0 58.0 59.4 60.9 62.4 64.0 65.1 67.0 67.9 77.6 Humble 49.3 42.9 43.3 43.8 44.2 44.8 45.1 45.9 47.3 51.9 Spring Creek Spring 91.5 75.6 76.8 77.4 78.0 78.5 79.6 81.3 82.6 91.1 Cypress Creek Westfield 85.5 67.3 68.8 69.2 69.7 70.4 71.1 72.5 74.0 81.7 San Jacinto River below Lake Houston Sheldon 10.0 1.5 2.1 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.3 5.2 8.5 11.2 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=hgx (internet address is all lower case). Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$