####018002543#### FGUS74 KSHV 211725 ESFSHV 221125- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1225 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Neches River basin of East Texas... In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during the next 90 days. For example...the Mud Creek near Jacksonville Texas flood stage is 9 feet. There is a 50 percent change the Mud Creek will rise above 8.8 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations valid for March 20, 2024 through June 18, 2024 Location FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ------------------ -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Mud Creek Jacksonville 7E 9 6.3 6.8 7.9 8.3 8.8 9.2 9.8 10.1 11.7 East Fork Angelina River Cushing 4N 15 11.5 12.8 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.6 16.0 17.3 Angelina River Alto 8E 29 21.6 21.8 25.1 26.6 27.6 28.2 29.0 29.2 29.9 Attoyac Bayou Chireno 3E 14 11.5 11.5 12.7 14.9 18.0 18.9 19.0 19.4 20.3 Ayish Bayou San Augustine 10S 12 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.1 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.8 Neches River Neches 4NE 12 10.1 11.7 13.1 14.2 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.5 17.5 Alto 8SW 16 11.6 13.3 15.3 16.1 17.0 17.6 18.6 19.0 20.3 Diboll 4S 12 9.6 10.8 11.5 12.8 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.9 16.2 Rockland 26 7.9 10.7 11.8 13.9 15.7 19.0 21.0 25.5 29.4 Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ------------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Lk Palestine 345.2 345.3 345.5 345.8 345.8 346.2 346.5 347.2 347.7 This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These probabilities also account for the current river flows and soil moisture conditions. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with long range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the internet at this URL: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv (internet address URL is all lower case). Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third Thursday of every month. $$ 09 ####018002576#### FGUS74 KSHV 211727 ESFSHV 221127- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1227 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River basin of East Texas... In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during the next 90 days. For example...the Sabine River near Mineola Texas flood stage is 14 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Sabine River will rise above 17.0feet during the next 90 days. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations valid for March 20, 2024 through June 18, 2024 Location FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ------------------ -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Lake Fork Creek Quitman 4S 16 13.5 13.5 15.3 16.3 16.7 16.9 18.6 19.3 21.9 Sabine River Mineola 4S 14 14.6 15.0 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.5 18.5 19.3 20.1 Gladewater 3WSW 26 17.9 18.1 20.8 25.8 29.6 33.7 34.1 36.3 38.5 Longview 25 15.1 15.7 18.1 21.8 25.3 28.3 29.5 32.8 35.7 Beckville 8NE 26 15.1 15.6 17.7 21.9 26.4 26.7 27.8 28.9 31.0 Logansport 28 24.0 24.5 25.3 26.2 28.9 30.5 32.9 35.2 36.7 Big Sandy Creek Big Sandy 4NE 17 8.3 8.5 9.7 11.2 11.8 13.0 13.5 15.5 17.2 Rabbit Creek Kilgore 10 7.6 9.1 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.5 12.7 13.5 17.1 Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Lk Cherokee 280.4 280.4 280.4 280.4 280.4 280.6 280.9 281.1 281.6 Lk Martin 306.1 306.1 306.1 306.3 306.4 306.5 306.7 307.2 307.7 Lk Murvaul 265.9 265.9 265.9 265.9 266.1 266.3 266.9 267.1 268.6 This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These probabilities also account for the current river flows and soil moisture conditions. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with long range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the internet at this URL: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv (internet address URL is all lower case). Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third Thursday of every month. $$ 09