####018002659#### FGUS74 KHGX 211750 ESFHGX 220550- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX 1250 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Trinity River Basin in Southeast Texas... The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Trinity River Basin in Southeast Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Trinity River at Liberty has a flood stage of 26 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Liberty forecast point will rise above 25.1 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations Valid 03/20/2024 - 06/18/2024 Location fs(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ------------------------------------------------------------------ Trinity River Crockett 41.0 20.3 20.4 21.1 22.8 26.4 28.1 31.9 41.9 46.5 Bedias Creek Madisonville 19.0 9.5 13.7 15.5 16.1 16.9 17.3 18.1 18.8 19.7 Trinity River Riverside 134.0 131.7 131.8 132.0 132.2 132.6 132.8 133.8 135.2 136.3 Long King Creek Livingston 19.0 3.9 5.1 6.1 7.1 8.8 11.4 15.8 19.2 22.9 Lower Trinity River Goodrich 36.0 15.7 16.3 17.1 19.3 21.9 24.2 28.0 32.5 36.2 Rye Creek Rye 20.0 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.0 10.9 12.0 18.1 21.6 23.1 Trinity River Romayor 40.0 19.2 19.6 20.4 22.2 24.2 25.9 28.5 32.1 34.4 Liberty 26.0 19.3 20.0 20.8 23.0 25.1 26.4 27.6 29.1 29.7 Moss Bluff 15.0 7.7 8.2 8.4 10.9 12.4 13.2 14.2 14.5 14.7 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=hgx (internet address is all lower case). Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$ ####018002812#### FGUS74 KHGX 211753 ESFHGX 220553- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX 1253 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) probabilistic outlook for the Brazos River Basin in Southeast Texas... The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Brazos River Basin in Southeast Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Brazos River at Richmond has a flood stage of 45 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Richmond forecast point will rise above 24.0 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations Valid 03/20/2024 - 06/18/2024 Location fs(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------------------------------------------------------------------- Brazos River Bryan 52.0 12.7 16.4 17.1 21.2 22.5 24.7 30.6 36.2 39.6 East Yegua Creek Dime Box 12.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 9.4 9.8 10.3 11.1 Middle Yegua Creek Dime Box 10.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 4.0 6.3 7.5 9.2 11.0 12.5 Davidson Creek Lyons 16.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 11.3 12.6 15.2 15.6 16.8 17.7 Navasota River Normangee 15.0 10.7 12.7 13.6 14.2 15.1 15.9 16.7 17.6 18.1 Mill Creek Bellville 20.0 3.4 3.4 5.7 7.5 8.3 10.0 10.5 13.6 15.8 Lower Brazos River Hempstead 50.0 15.9 18.8 23.1 24.4 25.9 27.5 33.8 39.3 46.8 San Felipe 122.5 95.9 97.2 100.2 100.6 101.6 103.7 108.0 110.5 116.1 Richmond 45.0 14.4 16.3 21.9 22.7 24.0 27.9 33.5 36.4 43.2 Rosharon 43.0 11.1 12.3 20.1 21.3 23.1 28.0 35.0 38.0 46.2 West Columbia 23.0 2.7 3.2 7.3 8.3 9.5 13.7 18.9 21.5 25.9 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=hgx (internet address is all lower case). Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$