####018003515#### FGUS71 KCAR 281313 AAA ESFCAR MEC003-009-019-021-025-029-041315- WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 913 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024 ...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE... This is the ninth Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for 2024, issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. This outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the one week period of March 27th through April 4th, 2024. The potential for Ice Jams is Above Normal across the St. John and the Allagash River Basins. Ice jam potential is over for the 2024 season on all other river basins. The potential for open water flooding is Above Normal across Downeast, East-Central Maine, Bangor Region, Moosehead Region and into Eastern Aroostook County including the Aroostook River Basin. The potential for open water flooding is Normal across the far North Woods, St. John, Allagash & Fish River basins in Northern Maine. ...LAKE ICE THICKNESS... Ice thickness is extremely variable with recent warm spells posing a serious risk to life. Do not venture onto the ice unless you know the exact thickness. For more information on ice safety visit the Maine Warden Service website www.maine.gov/ifw/fishing- boating/fishing/ice-safety-tips.html For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be in graphical format on our website www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook ...CLIMATE GUIDANCE FROM NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER... Although El Nino has begun to weaken...we are still seeing its influence manifested in very intense southern stream storm systems that gather Gulf of Mexico moisture and then try to head up the east coast. Another in this seemingly endless pattern of El Nino driven storms is poised to ride northeast just east of Cape Cod over the next few days...potentially bringing 1 to 3 inches of rainfall to the area. After that...it looks like early April 2024 will be characterized by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. This should promote a lot of upper level blocking downstream of New England in the North Atlantic which will likely deflect cold air from Canada southward into New England. At the same time...medium range climate indices call for the Pacific North America (PNA) Index to remain neutral to slightly positive. A positive PNA favors upper level troughing across the southeastern United States. The combination of a negative NAO and somewhat positive PNA does increase the odds of east coast storminess. It remains to be seen where exactly the upper level blocking sets up and whether it will keep the coastal systems south and east of New England or allow them far enough north to impact the southern and eastern portions of New England. Also...with near normal temperatures expected in early April...we may not be done with snow for this Winter. The official National Weather Service 6 to 10 day Outlook for 1-5 April 2024 seems to agree with this overall theme as it leans near normal for much of Maine with northern Maine temperatures could be near to perhaps a tad above normal. Precipitation during the same time period is leaning above normal across all of New England. So...it does seem active weather will continue as we transition from March into early April 2024. $$ Sinko