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FGUS71 KRLX 281651

ESFRLX

KYC019-043-089-127-OHC009-053-079-087-105-115-127-163-167-041700-



Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook

National Weather Service Charleston WV

1251 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024



...The flood potential is expected to be near normal for the next

two weeks...



This serves as the last winter/spring outlook for this season.



The coverage area of this outlook is limited to just the states

of Ohio and Kentucky.



A normal flood potential means at least some flooding is

possible. An above normal flood potential means more widespread 

flooding is possible with some points possibly reaching moderate 

or major flood levels.



This is a biweekly flood outlook issued by local NWS offices in 

winter and early spring to summarize basin conditions and to

assess the potential for flooding. The outlooks are based on 

current and forecast hydrometeorological conditions.



The factors considered when determining flood potential include:

current streamflow and reservoir levels compared to normal for

the period, water equivalent in any snowpack, soil moisture, and 

expected precipitation.



...Precipitation...

Precipitation amounts over the past two weeks were below normal 

across the Little Sandy and lower Scioto river basins with 25 to

50 percent of normal amounts observed. Further north into the

Muskingum and Hocking basins, amounts were 125 to 150 percent of

normal amounts.



...Soil Moisture Conditions...

Soil moisture is normal to above normal.



...Snow Cover and Snow Water Equivalent...

There is no snow cover across the area.



...Reservoir Capacity...

Reservoirs are at winter pools with ample storage available.



...River Ice...

River ice is non existent.



...Streamflow Conditions...

Streamflows are generally slightly below normal. The Ohio River 

is running below normal for flows on the order of 50 percent from

Willow Island down to Greenup Locks. 



...The Hydrologic Outlook through the next two weeks...

A transition to a wet and warm pattern will commence for the 

first week of April, as a wavy frontal boundary develops with 

rounds of rain and thunderstorms. As such, the potential exists 

for small stream and creek flooding within the Muskingum and 

Little Muskingum watersheds. Elevated levels along the Hocking and

Muskingum Rivers can be expected as well. Eventually, the Ohio 

River may experience strong rises, given the expected rainfall 

amounts in the upper drainages.



A drier and cooler pattern is forecast to take hold into the 

second week of April.



...Ensemble River Forecasts...

There is no strong signal of broad scale flood potential over the

next two weeks. 



Real-time river information and forecasts for specific locations

along rivers across eastern Kentucky and southeast Ohio, 

can be found at:



www.water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=rlx



$$