####018002860####
FGUS71 KILN 281717

ESFILN

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>097-099-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-

051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-041700-



Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

117 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024



...NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR THE REGION THROUGH APRIL 11...

 

Normal flood potential means at least some flooding is possible. 

Above normal flood potential means more widespread flooding is 

possible with some points possibly reaching moderate or major flood 

levels.

        

This is a biweekly flood outlook issued by local NWS offices in 

winter and early spring to summarize basin conditions and to assess 

the potential for flooding. The outlooks are based on current and 

forecast hydrometeorological conditions.

        

The factors considered when determining flood potential include 

current streamflow and reservoir levels compared to normal for the 

period, water equivalent in any snow pack, soil moisture and 

expected precipitation.

        

...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...

There is no snowpack across the region.



...STREAMFLOW...

Streamflow is near normal across the region.



...ICE...

There is no ice on area rivers.



...SOIL MOISTURE...

Soil moisture is below normal across the region.



...RESERVOIR CAPACITY...

Reservoirs are at optimal winter storage capacity.



...WEATHER TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION...

For the first week of the outlook period, active weather is 

expected, with the potential for 2 to up to 4 inches of rainfall, 

especially over Ohio and eastern Indiana. Generally less than 2 

inches is expected through the first week of the outlook period as 

of this writing over northern Kentucky.



With both soil moisture and streamflow being below normal for late 

March, this reduces the flood risk. However, there could be rises 

close to flood stage across the upper Scioto, Upper Great Miami and 

the St. Marys and Auglaize basins. This is the primary area with the 

potential for near normal flood potential during the first week of 

the outlook period, with below normal potential near and south of 

the Ohio River.



For the 8-14 day period ending April 11, near normal precipitation 

is expected over Ohio and most of northern Kentucky, with a slight 

potential for above normal precipitation over Indiana and the 

Kentucky river basin of northern Kentucky. With no clear or 

impending signal for flooding, risk continues to be characterized as 

near to below normal for April 4-10.

 

Real time river information and forecasts for specific locations 

along rivers across Central and Southern Ohio, Northern Kentucky, 

and Southeast Indiana can be found at 

water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=iln.

        

$$



JDR