####018002210#### FGUS74 KHGX 181812 ESFHGX 190612- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX 112 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Colorado River Basin in Southeast Texas... The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Colorado River Basin in Southeast Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Colorado River at Wharton has a flood stage of 39 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Wharton forecast point will rise above 20.1 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations Valid 04/17/2024 - 07/16/2024 Location fs(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ------------------------------------------------------------------ Colorado River Columbus 34.0 13.0 13.8 14.7 16.7 18.9 19.8 23.2 26.0 29.0 Wharton 39.0 12.7 13.7 14.9 17.4 20.1 21.0 25.2 28.5 31.3 Bay City 44.0 6.9 8.8 10.0 13.4 15.2 16.9 20.1 23.6 32.2 Matagorda 8.8 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 5.7 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=hgx (internet address is all lower case). Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$