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191431-





Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook

National Weather Service Shreveport LA

331 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024





...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range

probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River basin of East Texas...





In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the

chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during

the next 90 days. For example...the Sabine River near Mineola

Texas flood stage is 14 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the

Sabine River will rise above 17.0 feet during the next 90 days.





        Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations

         valid for April 17, 2024 through July 16, 2024





     Location      FS  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

------------------ --  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---



Lake Fork Creek

 Quitman 4S        16 11.6 11.6 15.5 16.6 16.7 17.0 18.4 19.3 21.8

Sabine River

 Mineola 4S        14 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.9 17.0 17.6 18.4 19.2 19.9

 Gladewater 3WSW   26 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 29.3 32.8 35.1 37.2 38.0

 Longview          25 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 26.7 31.8 33.8 34.9

 Beckville 8NE     26 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.6 28.1 29.0 30.3

 Logansport        28 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 31.2 32.2

Big Sandy Creek

 Big Sandy 4NE     17 10.4 10.4 10.9 11.6 12.0 12.9 14.3 15.6 17.3

Rabbit Creek

 Kilgore           10  5.2  7.8 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.5 13.6 14.9 16.1





 Location     90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%

 ----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

Lk Cherokee  280.4 280.4 280.4 280.4 280.4 280.5 280.9 281.0 281.6

Lk Martin    306.1 306.1 306.1 306.2 306.3 306.4 306.5 306.8 307.2

Lk Murvaul   265.8 265.8 265.8 265.8 266.0 266.1 266.4 267.0 267.5



This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed 

using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological 

and stream flow data. These probabilities also account for the 

current river flows and soil moisture conditions. By providing the 

complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk 

associated with long range planning decisions can be determined.



Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the 

internet at this URL: https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/shv (internet 

address URL is all lower case).



Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third 

Thursday of every month.



$$



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