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FGUS71 KCAR 261558

ESFCAR

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

1158 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024



...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL 

AND DOWNEAST MAINE...



This is the twelfth Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for 

2024, issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. 

This outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the 

two week period of April 26th through May 10th, 2024.



...This is the Final Issuance for the 2024 Season...



The potential for open water flooding is Below Normal across the

St. John, Fish, Aroostook and Allagash River Basins. The potential

for open water flooding is Normal across the remaining river

basins in Eastern and Northern Maine.



For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be

in graphical format on our website. If you have any questions,

comments or feedback from this 2024 season visit our website 

www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook





...CLIMATE GUIDANCE FROM THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...



El Nino has continued to weaken although its influence is slowly

weakening across the area. Drier than normal pattern has been

prevailing since Mid Month with deeper moisture remaining

southwest of the region. Arctic Oscillation (AO) is positive

turning neutral. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is neutral and

possibly turning negative. Pacific North American Pattern (PNA)

remains negative. The general pattern features troughing along the

West Coast of the United States with some ridging across the

Southeastern United States extending into the Northeast at times.

This favors above normal temperatures due to prevailing southwest

flow with in general a more inland low pressure track. Given the

remaining weak El Nino there will be chances for precipitation due

to the active subtropical jet.



The official National Weather Service 6 to 14 day Outlook for 1-9

May 2024 intially is above normal temperatures turning near normal

in the long term. Precipitation will start near normal but turning

slight below normal given the likely drier pattern continuing. 



$$

Sinko