####018003935#### FGUS74 KMAF 152111 ESFMAF TXC033-227-335-415-162115- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 311 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range Probabilistic Outlook for the Colorado and Pecos River Basins in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico... The National Weather Service office in Midland, Texas has implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Colorado River Basin in West Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Colorado River at Colorado City has a flood stage of 15.0 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Colorado City Forecast point will not rise above 7.4 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid [ 02/18/2024 - 05/18/2024 ] Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Colorado River Colorado City 15.0 4.5 4.9 5.9 6.7 7.4 7.9 8.9 10.8 12.0 Deep Creek Dunn 1W 14.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 4.1 5.5 6.5 Beals Creek Westbrook 11S 22.5 3.1 3.9 4.9 5.6 6.1 7.3 8.4 10.1 14.4 Pecos River Artesia 6E 12.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 7.8 8.2 8.3 8.5 Carlsbad 9NW 20.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Carlsbad 2E 14.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 Malaga 3ESE 30.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 Malaga 10S 20.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 4.3 Sheffield 3ESE 28.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 Rio Penasco Dayton 2WNW 20.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Fourmile Draw Lakewood 4NNW 12.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Rocky Arroyo Lakewood 7S 12.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Dark Canyon Carlsbad 15.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 Black River Malaga 5W 18.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 Delaware River Red Bluff 11NW 26.0 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 Independence Creek Sheffield 18SSE 11.0 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 Lake JB Thomas 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 2227.1 2227.1 2227.1 2227.1 2227.1 2227.3 2228.6 2229.3 2230.7 Lake Colorado City 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 2057.2 2057.2 2057.2 2057.2 2057.2 2057.8 2058.1 2058.3 2060.1 Champion Creek Reservoir 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 2069.2 2069.2 2069.2 2069.2 2069.2 2069.3 2069.4 2069.6 2069.7 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=maf Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$ ####018026425#### FGUS73 KILX 152111 ESFILX ILC009-017-025-033-057-079-095-101-113-123-125-129-137-143-147- 155-159-167-169-179-183-203-281800- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Lincoln IL 311 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1... ...Overall near normal likelihood for springtime flooding across central Illinois with below normal likelihood in the southeast... This flood outlook covers the Lincoln Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which encompasses 35 counties in central and southeast Illinois. It includes the following rivers... - Illinois River from Henry to Beardstown - Spoon River from London Mills to Seville - Mackinaw River at Congerville - Sangamon River from Monticello to Chandlerville - Salt Creek at Greenview - Little Wabash River near Clay City - Embarras River from Ste. Marie to Lawrenceville These flood outlooks are issued in late winter and early spring, in addition to the 7 day river forecasts that are issued when river forecast locations are in flood or are forecast to rise above flood stage. They are based on multi-season scenarios from more than 30 years of climatological data, current streamflows, soil conditions, snow pack, as well as short/long range weather forecasts. FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS... - Risk of flooding this spring is near normal across central Illinois with below normal likelihood across the southeast. - Factors limiting flood potential this spring include: near normal streamflows, little to no local snowpack, thawed soils, deep layer soil moisture deficits. - Springtime rains expected to be the primary driver for flooding. WINTER WEATHER REVIEW... --December-- Statewide Temperatures/Precipitation: Information, courtesy of the Illinois State Climatologist, shows that the preliminary statewide average December temperature was 39.2 degrees, 7.6 degrees above normal and the 3rd warmest on record going back to 1895. For the second time in three years, Illinois experienced an extremely mild December. All but three days were warmer than normal in Decatur, and several days in the second and fourth weeks of the month were 10 to 20 degrees warmer than normal. This was the 2nd warmest December in Rockford, the 3rd warmest in Peoria, and the 4th warmest in Chicago and Moline. None of the 120+ NWS observing stations in Illinois recorded a low temperature in the single digits. Many places hit the freezing mark only a handful of nights. When taken altogether, December average temperatures ranged from the low 30s in northern Illinois to the low 40s in southern Illinois, between 6 and 10 degrees above normal. The warmest place in the state was Du Quoin with an average December temperature of 46.1 degrees. The coolest was Stockton in Jo Daviess County with an average December temperature of 33.9 degrees. It is important to note that the nighttime low temperatures in December were much higher than normal. The preliminary average December minimum temperature is 32.2 degrees, which would be the 2nd highest on record statewide. The mild December weather broke 20 daily high maximum temperature records and 99 daily high minimum temperature records across Illinois! No daily low maximum or daily low minimum temperature records were broken. The preliminary statewide average total December precipitation was 2.99 inches, 0.56 inches above normal and the 30th wettest on record statewide. The first month of climatological winter brought a more active storm track to the Midwest than for most of fall. December total precipitation ranged from just over 4 inches in parts of northern Illinois to less than 1 inch in parts of far southern Illinois. Most of northern Illinois was around 1 inch wetter than normal, while most of the state south of Interstate 64 was 1 to 3 inches drier than normal in December. As is often the case in milder Decembers, snowfall was hard to come by across Illinois. Total snowfall ranged from around 4 inches in far northwest Illinois to less than a tenth of an inch in southern Illinois. This was between 1 and 8 inches below normal. Local Temperatures/Precipitation/River Conditions: Temperatures for December were above normal across the ILX Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). They generally ranged from 7.5 degrees to 9 degrees above normal. Daily high temperatures ranged from the teens to the upper 60s. Normal highs for December typically range from the low 30s to the mid 40s. Low temperatures across the area ranged from the mid 30s to the low 50s. They typically range from the teens to the upper 20s. Rainfall totals across most of the ILX HSA were above normal for the month of December. However, far southeastern reaches saw below normal precipitation. Monthly precipitation ranged from 1.68 inches in Hutsonville to 4.07 inches in Fisher. These totals ranged from 1.38 inches below normal to 1.62 inches above normal, respectively. This equates to roughly 55 to 165 percent of normal precipitation for the month. The above normal precipitation in northern Illinois allowed for drought improvement in those areas. In contrast, conditions worsened across southern sections of the state, due to below normal precipitation. While D0 (Abnormally Dry) and D1 (Moderate Drought) conditions improved overall, areas of D2 (Severe Drought) expanded from 6 percent to 19 percent month over month. This was most evident across portions of west-central Illinois as well as the southern third of the state. With low streamflows and below normal soil moisture conditions, the above normal December precipitation was not enough to cause flooding issues across central and southeast Illinois. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monthly average streamflow values for December show overall near normal streamflows across mainly the northern half of Illinois. Flows across the southern half of the state were overall in the below normal to much below normal categories. --January-- Statewide Temperatures/Precipitation: The Illinois State Climatologist notes that the preliminary statewide average January temperature was 25.7 degrees, 1.0 degree above normal and tied for the 57th coldest on record going back to 1895. The very mild December weather spilled over into the new year as the first 10 to 12 days of January had temperatures near to slightly above normal. Extremely cold air moved into Illinois following a series of winter storms and brought frigid weather across the state for the middle part of the month. Daily temperature departures from normal showed average temperatures were 10 to 30 degrees below normal. Some of the coldest temperatures from that week included -25 degrees in Altona and -19 degrees in Moline. Strong northerly and northwesterly winds added to the cold and pushed wind chills into the -30 to -40 degree range. Water main breaks were reported across the state, and several school districts closed for multiple days because of the cold. Numerous deaths in the state were attributed to the cold as well. Temperatures moderated in the final week of the month, providing a well-deserved break from an Arctic winter. January temperatures ranged from the low 20s in northern Illinois to the mid 30s in southern Illinois. The southern half of the state was 1 to 3 degrees colder than normal. Despite the extreme cold mid- month, northern Illinois was 1 to 2 degrees warmer than normal. The coldest point in the state in January was Stockton in Jo Daviess County at 20.1 degrees. The “warmest” point was Olmstead in Pulaski County at 32.7 degrees. The preliminary statewide average total January precipitation was 4.50 inches, 2.19 inches below normal and tied for the eighth wettest on record statewide. Precipitation was hard to come by for much of Illinois during the last few months of 2023. Drought impacts are usually minimal in winter, but there were many reports of unusually dry soils and low streams and ponds at the start of the new year. While January did not completely replenish all water lost last year, it took a big bite out of the drought. January total precipitation ranged from around 2.5 inches in northwest Illinois to nearly 10 inches in far southern Illinois. Everywhere in Illinois was wetter than normal in January, to the tune of 1 to 4 inches, between 150% and 300% of normal monthly precipitation. It was the eighth wettest January on record in Champaign and Centralia, both with over 5 inches total. Depending on where you are in Illinois, January is either the first or second snowiest month of the year. If you live north or west of the Illinois River, this was the case this past January. For the rest of Illinois, January just brought more cold rain. Total January snowfall ranged from less than half an inch in southern Illinois to over 25 inches in northwest Illinois. The latter was 4 to 15 inches above normal. Most of the snow in January came immediately ahead of or during the extreme cold in the middle of the month. Moline picked up more snowfall between January 8 and January 18 than in all of 2023. January was the second snowiest on record in Moline, only less than 2019. The 12th of January was also the second snowiest day on record in Moline, with 15.4 inches. It was only less than on January 3, 1971. The heavy snowfall in mid-January pushed the northwest corner of Illinois 1 to 6 inches above normal on season-to-date snowfall. Meanwhile, most of central and southern Illinois had 2 to 8 inches below normal snowfall by that time. Local Temperatures/Precipitation/River Conditions: Temperature averages for January were overall near normal across the ILX Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). Temperatures generally ranged from 1 degree below normal to 1 degree above. Daily high temperatures ranged from the single digits below zero to the mid 50s. Normal highs for January typically range into the low to mid 30s. Low temperatures across the area ranged from low teens below zero to the mid 30s. They typically range into the teens. Liquid precipitation totals across the ILX HSA were well above normal for the month of January. Monthly precipitation ranged from 2.87 inches in Mackinaw to 6.32 inches in Casey. These totals ranged from 0.70 to 3.07 inches above normal, respectively. This equates to roughly 130 to 195 percent of normal precipitation for the month. The above normal precipitation for January continued to erode drought coverage across the state. Only areas of D0 (Abnormally Dry) conditions remain across portions of southern and west-central Illinois. Drought coverage has dropped from to 54 to now 17 percent of the state. With the above normal precipitation, we did see minor to moderate river flooding. However, it was not widespread and began in the latter half of the month. Flooding was seen along the Illinois River, and portions of the Little Wabash and Sangamon rivers. Heading into the second half of February, the only ongoing river flooding extends from Havana to Beardstown on the Illinois River. Bitterly cold temperatures mid-month caused appreciable ice development on area rivers. This was followed by a rapid warm-up along with widespread heavy rain. The frozen ground lead to significant runoff, which caused area rivers to swell and mechanically break up the ice. The higher flows caused downstream movement of the ice. As a result, there were a few instances of ice jams along portions of the Mackinaw and Sangamon Rivers. Thankfully, impacts from these ice jams were minor and short-lived. USGS monthly streamflow for January shows overall near normal streamflows across mainly the southern half of Illinois as well as areas in the northwest. Flows across remainder of the state were overall in the above normal to much above normal categories. --February-- The month of February, to this point, has seen daily average temperatures that are well above normal. They ranged from around 10 to 13 degrees above normal across the ILX Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). In contrast, precipitation has averaged below normal. It has ranged from around a half inch to 1 inch below normal. Thanks to the above normal temperatures, we have no snowpack across the area and are frost-free as of this issuance. SOIL MOISTURE AND FROST DEPTH CONDITIONS... Shallow soil moisture conditions across Illinois are near normal for this time of year. However, deep layer soil conditions (down to 39 inches) continue to show an appreciable deficit across most of central and southern Illinois. Drought conditions in Illinois have notably improved through the winter season. The drought recovery is thanks to overall above normal temperatures that minimized periods of frozen soils in addition to precipitation that fell in form of rain. At the end of November, nearly 40 percent of the state was experiencing D0 (Abnormally Dry) conditions with about 40 percent in the D1 (Moderate Drought) category...or worse. As of the latest Drought Monitor issuance, only pockets of D0 conditions remain in the state. They are mainly seen across portions of west-central and southern Illinois and now only cover about 20 percent of the state. With overall above normal temperatures this winter, frost was afforded little opportunity to develop or persist across the area. One exception was the Arctic outbreak we had in mid-January. That stretch of frigid temperatures caused frost to develop down to 6 to 10 inches across our service area. However, the return to above normal temperatures quickly thawed the soils across the area. As of this issuance, Illinois is currently frost-free. Continued above normal temperatures over the next couple of weeks will keep soils thawed. This should allow for deeper infiltration of rainwater. As a result, runoff potential will be reduced until soils moisten up more thoroughly. If we get into a longer duration, wet weather pattern then runoff potential and risk of flooding increases with time. RIVER CONDITIONS... As of this issuance, the only river flooding in central and southeast Illinois extends along the Illinois River from Havana to Beardstown. However, this flooding is expected to come to an end within the next week. Information, courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), shows that streamflow conditions across the ILX Hydrologic Service Area are overall near normal for this time of year. However, were are currently seeing some below normal flows in our southeast. Thanks to the above normal temperatures the past few weeks, river ice is not currently present on area rivers. The long-range outlooks over the next couple of weeks project above normal temperatures which should keep river ice from developing. Therefore, ice jam flooding is not expected to be a factor as we head into late winter / early spring. WEATHER OUTLOOKS... Although Illinois is currently free of snow, we are expecting a storm system to bring around 1 to 2 inch snowfall totals across much of central and southern Illinois for the end of the work week. This snow is not expected to hang around long as temperatures are going to quickly warm into the 40s and 50s toward the end of the holiday weekend and into next week. With the thawed soils and drier conditions, much of the melt would be expected to infiltrate into the ground with little to no runoff. Therefore, flooding is not expected in the near-term. The weather pattern over the next 2 weeks will be somewhat active and will bring a couple opportunities for precipitation over that time. After a brief drop to freezing temperatures late this week, we will quickly rebound to highs well into the 40s and 50s next week. That should bring precipitation in the form of rain for these next storm systems. The 8 to 14 day outlook (Feb 22 to Feb 28) strongly favors above normal temperatures across Illinois. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored across the eastern two-thirds of Illinois with near normal precipitation favored elsewhere during the period. The most recent outlook for this spring (March / April / May) favors above normal temperatures across Illinois with the highest likelihood across far northeastern portions of the state. As for precipitation, most of Illinois is favored for above normal precipitation this spring with the highest likelihood across the southern third of the state. FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY... The risk of flooding this spring is overall near normal across central Illinois with below normal probabilities in the southeast. With that said, those locations that typically experience flooding in the spring can expect similar likelihood this year. Minor flooding would be most common with possibly isolated moderate flooding. Currently, the only ongoing river flooding in the HSA is along the Illinois River from Havana to Beardstown. However, the flooding is expected to come to an end in the next week. Streamflows are overall in the normal range with some in the below normal range in our southeast. Soils are thawed across the area with no frost present. Shallow soil moisture conditions are near normal. However, deeper soils continue to show an appreciable deficit. These conditions do not currently contribute toward enhanced flood potential for this spring. Spring rains will be the primary driver of flooding this year since other hydrologic conditions are not significant contributing factors. Overall, any flooding that does occur is expected to be minor with the possibility of isolated moderate flooding across portions of central and southeast Illinois this spring, which is typical. -------------------------------------------------------------------- In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Illinois River Henry 23.0 24.0 31.0 : 60 56 47 52 <5 <5 Peoria 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 65 66 32 34 <5 <5 Peoria L/D 447.0 449.0 455.0 : 56 56 36 36 <5 <5 Havana 14.0 17.0 23.0 : 87 84 65 65 17 21 Beardstown 14.0 18.0 28.0 : 83 79 60 60 6 7 :Mackinaw River Congerville 13.0 14.0 20.0 : 21 21 18 16 <5 <5 :Spoon River London Mills 15.0 21.0 24.0 : 46 53 6 5 <5 <5 Seville 22.0 25.0 30.0 : 38 44 22 18 <5 <5 :Sangamon River Monticello 13.0 17.0 20.0 : 67 71 7 7 <5 <5 Riverton 23.0 26.0 29.0 : 16 15 <5 <5 <5 <5 Petersburg 23.0 24.0 33.0 : 22 24 20 18 <5 <5 :Salt Creek Greenview 16.0 17.0 20.0 : 17 19 12 11 5 <5 :Sangamon River Oakford 471.0 472.9 478.5 : 39 42 19 21 <5 <5 Chandlerville 456.6 459.0 462.0 : 52 56 21 24 <5 <5 :Embarras River Lawrenceville 30.0 37.0 41.0 : 49 79 9 19 <5 <5 Ste. Marie 19.0 20.0 27.0 : 29 38 21 24 <5 <5 :Little Wabash River Clay City 18.0 22.0 25.0 : 80 93 20 22 <5 <5 :Vermilion River Danville 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 18 25 5 13 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Illinois River Henry 16.7 17.3 20.8 23.7 26.1 27.6 29.6 Peoria 13.2 13.6 17.2 20.1 22.5 24.2 26.0 Peoria L/D 436.5 440.3 444.5 447.5 449.9 451.4 453.5 Havana 11.9 13.5 15.7 18.3 21.9 24.6 26.8 Beardstown 11.6 13.0 16.6 19.3 23.9 27.0 28.4 :Mackinaw River Congerville 3.4 4.8 6.5 9.6 11.7 16.2 16.5 :Spoon River London Mills 5.8 7.0 11.1 14.3 18.4 20.6 22.4 Seville 9.5 11.1 15.6 19.4 24.5 26.4 28.7 :Sangamon River Monticello 8.9 10.3 12.4 13.6 15.0 16.1 17.5 Riverton 12.3 13.2 17.2 19.3 21.4 24.1 26.0 Petersburg 10.5 11.4 14.4 17.8 21.2 26.0 27.3 :Salt Creek Greenview 4.7 6.7 8.1 11.2 14.0 17.4 20.2 :Sangamon River Oakford 461.9 462.9 465.6 470.1 471.9 473.8 475.7 Chandlerville 449.5 450.6 453.1 457.1 458.8 460.4 461.9 :Embarras River Lawrenceville 24.7 25.9 28.1 29.8 34.0 36.8 37.7 Ste. Marie 6.7 9.5 12.7 15.6 19.6 20.9 21.3 :Little Wabash River Clay City 15.2 16.4 18.8 20.2 21.7 22.5 23.3 :Vermilion River Danville 7.8 8.7 10.5 13.3 16.0 20.6 22.1 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Illinois River Henry 15.4 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.5 Peoria 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.1 11.8 10.6 10.6 Peoria L/D 434.6 434.5 433.6 432.7 431.5 430.8 430.6 Havana 7.8 7.6 7.1 6.2 5.2 4.9 4.9 Beardstown 10.6 10.6 10.3 10.0 9.8 9.4 9.3 :Mackinaw River Congerville 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 :Spoon River London Mills 3.8 3.6 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.1 Seville 7.3 7.1 6.8 6.3 5.9 5.5 5.2 :Sangamon River Monticello 7.1 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.0 5.6 5.4 Riverton 6.9 6.5 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.3 4.1 Petersburg 7.1 6.9 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.4 5.3 :Salt Creek Greenview 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 :Sangamon River Oakford 458.6 458.3 457.9 457.6 457.1 456.8 456.6 Chandlerville 445.9 445.7 445.2 444.9 444.5 444.2 444.0 :Embarras River Lawrenceville 18.5 18.4 18.0 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.3 Ste. Marie 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 :Little Wabash River Clay City 6.0 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.1 :Vermilion River Danville 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------- FLOOD TERMINOLOGY... Minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible. Moderate flooding is used to indicate some inundation of structures and roads near the river. Transfer of property to a higher elevation or another location may be necessary. Some evacuations may also be required. Major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of people and livestock and closure of both primary and secondary roads. FOR MORE INFORMATION... Visit our web page at www.weather.gov/ilx for more official NWS river and weather information. To view graphical AHPS information, including forecasts, select Rivers and Lakes from along the top menu bar. Full AHPS graphics are available for all forecast points in the ILX Hydrologic Service Area. For 30 to 90 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, visit the web page of the Climate Prediction Center at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. The second issuance of the Spring Flood Outlook for central and southeast Illinois will be on Thursday, February 29th. The NOAA National Spring Flood Outlook will be issued on Thursday, March 21st. $$ DRH ####018026410#### FGUS73 KGID 152111 ESFGID NEC129-NEC175-NEC077-NEC125-NEC163-NEC093-NEC019-NEC079-NEC019- KSC147-KSC163-051800- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Hastings NE 311 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1... This outlook is for the Hastings Hydrologic Service Area (HSA). In South Central Nebraska this outlook includes the Platte...Loup...Little Blue...and Republican Rivers and their tributaries. In North Central Kansas...the Solomon River and its tributaries are included. ...The potential for spring flooding is generally below average to near average across the majority of the area... ...Short Term Hydrologic Outlook...February 15th - 29th... The thick river ice we accumulated in January has melted off or broken up and moved out of the area. We do not expect enough additional ice accumulation through late winter or early spring to cause any additional ice jams this season. Therefore, the ice jam threat has ended for the spring season. There is good confidence that we will continue to see above normal temperatures through the end of February. The precipitation outlook is more uncertain, but with perhaps a little better chance for less precipitation than normal as we end the month of February. Therefore, no flooding is currently expected through the end of February. ...Long Term Hydrologic Outlook...March 1st Through May 17th... The overall potential for spring flooding is below average across the majority of the area to near average in a few locations along primarily the Loup River Basin. Spring flood outlooks are routinely issued from February through March to give advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture, snowpack magnitude, stream flow conditions, and the long range forecast of future precipitation patterns. There are several primary factors leading to our below average threat for spring flooding. - The local snowpack is negligible to non-existent. - The mountain snowpack in the Platte River Basin is near to below normal. - Lake McConaughy is at 62 percent capacity and has plenty of storage space available. - Soil moisture is drier than normal in many locations given the ongoing moderate to severe drought. We do have some locations that have come out of the drought, but even in these areas soil moisture is just near normal at best. Consequently, the soil is still capable of absorbing plenty of moisture thus limiting spring flood potential. - Current streamflow on our biggest rivers is averaging near normal to below normal from the Platte Basin south into Kansas. Farther north the Loup Basin has a few sites averaging above normal streamflow for this time of year. - The March precipitation outlook is trending towards above normal precipitation, but the longer range outlook of April through June indicates equal chances with no strong indicators one way or the other. A wetter than normal March may help our drought situation, but is unlikely to have much impact on our short term flooding threat due to the other factors listed above. It is important to mention that isolated or localized flooding is still possible even in dry years and when the overall risk of widespread flooding is low. Isolated heavy spring thunderstorms will still be capable of producing localized areas of flooding. For a graphical, more in-depth version of this assessment, please refer to our PDF report that will be linked at: https://www.weather.gov/media/gid/hydro/SpringFloodOutlook_2024.pdf ...Climatological Review (Annual 2023 and More Recent Winter 2023-24 Precipitation Analysis)... Let's start with a look back with a precipitation recap of the year 2023 across the 30-county NWS Hastings coverage area (24 counties in central/south central Nebraska and 6 in north central Kansas): Although as severely dry as 2022 was, 2023 was another overall-drier- than-normal year across most of our area, with roughly 75 percent of the area receiving at least slightly below normal precipitation (counties east of Highway 281 the overall-driest). Of the roughly one-fourth of the area that received slightly above normal precipitation, it was almost entirely concentrated within counties west of Highway 281. Digging a bit deeper into the numbers, the majority of the area tallied between 20-27 inches of precipitation, or generally 75-100% of the 30-year normal. Put another way, most places measured somewhere between 8" below normal annual precipitation and 1" above normal annual precipitation. Based on data from dozens of NWS and CoCoRaHS/NeRAIN observers, also radar-estimated analysis, some places especially within the following central/eastern local counties fell at least 6" short of normal for the year: Hall, Hamilton, York, Polk, Fillmore, Thayer, Mitchell. On the flip side, of the roughly 25% of the area that received at least slightly above normal precipitation, it was most heavily concentrated within portions of the following western local counties: Harlan, Gosper, Valley, Sherman, western Buffalo and northern Phillips. For our 30-county area as a whole (and there were certainly exceptions), a few of the overall-driest months versus normal were: March, April, May and October. In contrast, the overall- wettest months versus normal were: January, February, June and December. Highlighting just a few "quirky"/notable precipitation trends within our area during 2023: - 1): Our NWS observer near York (York 3N) totaled merely 6.97" through the first half of the year (January-June), an incredible 8.40" below normal and marking the driest first half of a year since 1970! However, July then brought an incredible change in fortune, with 7.31" of rain ranking as the 9th-wettest July on record out of 130 years. Unfortunately, the annual total at York 3N still ended up 8.08" below normal. - 2): In our extreme southern coverage area, our NWS observer near Plainville KS (Plainville 4WNW) endured two INCREDIBLY-DRY, two- month stretches during 2023. First, March+April combined to yield merely 0.36", marking THE DRIEST March+April on record out of 115 years! Then in the fall, September+October combined for just 0.75" (the 2nd-driest Sept.+Oct. on record). Fortunately, the other eight months of the year featured near-to-above normal precipitation, but Plainville 4WNW still ended up 5.02" below normal for 2023. As for official NWS cooperative observer and airport stations, a few of the outright driest in our coverage area during 2023 included: Grand Island airport (16.52"), Bradshaw (19.30"), Osceola (20.00") and Polk (20.14"). Meanwhile, a few of the wettest NWS observer stations featured: Lebanon KS (29.57"), Harlan County Lake (29.43"), Loup City (28.54") and Lovewell Dam KS (27.85"). -- 2023 Drought Recap (per weekly updates by the U.S. Drought Monitor/USDM): Not surprisingly given that below normal precipitation prevailed most of the year in most places, drought of varying intensity was a big story during 2023. The year opened with 95% of our coverage area blanketed by anything from Moderate Drought (D1) to Extreme Drought (D3). Halfway through the year, the June 27th USDM painted a worsening situation, with your ENTIRE 30-county area covered by Moderate (D1) to Exceptional Drought (D4), including 42% of the area in D3+D4 (most heavily concentrated east of Highway 281 in Nebraska). Fortunately, the latter half of 2023 brought at least some improvement, as the Dec. 28th USDM only had 62% of our area under D1-D4, and the coverage of worst-off D3+D4 had slimmed to 28% (but still most concentrated east of Highway 281 in Nebraska). On a positive note at year's end: 16% of the area was actually indicated to be void of all all drought categories whatsoever (even Abnormally Dry D0), including large parts of Furnas, Gosper, Phelps, Harlan and Valley counties. The first table below features precipitation totals and departures from normal/percent of normal for the year 2023, with data depicted for just a small sampling of official NWS cooperative observers representing various parts of our area, along with a few primary airport sites. (For full access to official daily/monthly/annual precipitation totals across our area, please visit our NOWData page: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=gid) Location Precip Departure Percent of North Central KS All of 2023 from Normal Normal --------------- -------- ------ --------- Beloit 22.52 -6.56 77 Phillipsburg 26.10 +0.47 102 Plainville 4WNW 21.09 -5.02 81 Smith Center 25.23 -0.87 97 Location Precip Departure Percent of South Central NE All of 2023 from Normal Normal --------------- -------- ------ --------- Cambridge 21.84 -1.60 93 Elwood 8S 24.31 +1.03 104 Grand Island Arpt 16.52 -10.09 62 Hastings Airport 20.81 -5.59 79 Hebron 22.79 -8.29 73 Holdrege 25.18 -2.41 91 Kearney Airport 26.95 +1.39 105 Lexington 6SSE 24.45 +1.06 105 Ord 27.35 +1.04 104 Osceola 20.00 -8.79 69 Red Cloud 26.16 +0.70 103 St. Paul 20.70 -6.62 76 York 3N 22.11 -8.08 73 ...Winter-to-date precipitation trends (Dec. 1-Feb. 14)... Now that we've examined precipitation trends/totals for the preceding calendar year of 2023, it's time to take a closer look at more recent precipitation trends over the past few months, specifically what has transpired since the start of "meteorological winter" back on Dec. 1, 2023 (meteorological winter is defined as the three calendar months of Dec-Jan-Feb). As evidenced in the data presented in the table below (and supported by AHPS precipitation analysis), this winter-so-far has been solidly wetter-than-normal across our entire coverage area. More specifically, most of our area has received somewhere between 2.00- 4.00" of precipitation since Dec. 1st (including melted snow). This equates to most of our area being 110-220 percent of normal for the winter! Although much of this precipitation fell as snow during January, quite a bit of it actually fell as rain during December and in early February. Although not a large/significant difference, the overall-wettest locations have mainly favored eastern/southern portions of our area, with the overall-driest locations mainly concentrated in western/northern counties. Per official NWS cooperative observer and airport stations, a few of the wettest locations in our area since Dec. 1st include: Plainville KS 4WNW (5.08"), Smith Center KS (5.00") and Hebron (4.40"). In fact, this has already been the 2nd-wettest winter on record in Smith Center and the 3rd-wettest on record at Plainville 4WNW! Meanwhile, a few of the driest (but still at least slightly above normal) stations have been: Cambridge (1.51"), Edison (1.96") and Greeley (1.98"). -- Winter-to-date Drought Recap (per weekly updates by the U.S. Drought Monitor/USDM): Thanks to the aforementioned above normal precipitation this winter (and in particular the fact that much of it has fallen as rain and soaked into the soil efficiently), there has been an unusually- significant improvement in drought categories across much of our coverage area since early-December. At the start of December, 64% of our coverage area was under drought categories ranging from Moderate (D1) to Exceptional (D4), including 36% of the area in worst-off D3+D4 (primarily focused east of Highway 281 in Nebraska and also in parts of north central Kansas). However, the last few months have only brought gradual improvement, and as of the very latest USDM issued today (Feb. 15), all Extreme (D3) and Exceptional (D4) Drought categories have been removed from our coverage area. That being said, half of the area remains under Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) drought, with D2 dominating most local Nebraska counties along/east of Highway 281. In the "best news of all" department, 31% of our coverage area is currently indicated to be void of all drought categories whatsoever (even Abnormally Dry D0), including large parts of several counties mainly west of the Highway 281 corridor. The next table below highlights precipitation totals and departures from normal/percent of normal for meteorological winter thus far, covering Dec. 1st - Feb. 14th. Data is shown for just a small sampling of official NWS cooperative observers representing various parts of our area, along with a few primary airport sites. Location Precip Departure Percent of North Central KS Dec 1-Feb 14 from Normal Normal --------------- -------- ------ --------- Beloit 4.00 +1.87 188 Phillipsburg 3.03 +1.18 164 Plainville 4WNW 5.08 +3.08 254 Smith Center 5.00 +3.27 289 Location Precip Departure Percent of South Central NE Dec 1-Feb 14 from Normal Normal --------------- -------- ------ --------- Cambridge 1.51 +0.11 108 Elwood 8S 2.06 +0.70 151 Grand Island Arpt 3.47 +1.65 191 Hastings Airport 3.28 +1.47 181 Hebron 4.40 +2.14 195 Holdrege 2.78 +1.17 173 Kearney Airport 2.51 +1.03 170 Lexington 6SSE 2.07 +0.79 162 Ord 2.86 +1.23 175 Osceola 3.74 +1.60 175 Superior 3.53 +1.40 166 St. Paul 2.32 +0.56 132 York 3N 3.58 +1.27 155 ...Weather/Climatological Outlook For The Next Week Through The Next Three Months... It's now time to switch gears and look ahead to expected weather conditions over the next several days and expected climate trends over the next several months: The next week (through Feb. 22): According to our latest official 7-day forecast, at least the vast majority of this week will be dry, with the only decent chance for light snowfall accumulation (mainly under 1") occurring right away tonight into Friday AM (Feb. 16th). Temperature-wise, following a few cooler days with highs only in the 30s/40s through Saturday (Feb. 17), we will return right back to the prevailing warmer-than- normal regime that has defined nearly the entire month so far. More specifically, high temperatures in the 50s (and even some 60s) will be common Feb. 18th-22nd. Two weeks out (Feb. 23-29): Looking out just a bit farther in time, the latest 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calls for a high probability of continued above normal temperatures across our entire coverage area (60-70% chance), and also calls for near-normal precipitation. Meteorological Spring (March-May): Turning to the upcoming meteorological spring months of March-April- May as a whole, the latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) three- month outlook (just issued today/Feb. 15th) indicates a slight lean toward above normal precipitation (primarily driven by expectations of a somewhat-wet March), along with "Equal chances" for temperatures to be above normal, below normal or near normal. This means that there are no clear signals in current longer-range forecast data to lean toward one of these outcomes over another. Based on 30-year normals, total March-May precipitation across the NWS Hastings coverage area typically ranges from 7-10", with the lowest amounts generally west of Highway 183 and highest amounts near the Highway 81 corridor. U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (issued by CPC on Feb. 15th and valid through the end of May): Going hand in hand with the aforementioned slight lean toward above normal precipitation this spring, this outlook indicates that those parts of our coverage area currently under any drought category (Moderate Drought D1 or worse), will either see some improvement or perhaps have drought removed altogether. (The longer range forecasts issued by CPC and referenced in the preceding paragraphs are based on output from various forecast models, as well as forecaster expertise, and take into consideration ongoing global/tropical atmospheric and oceanic states, recent trends in observed data, soil moisture conditions, etc. More information about these longer-range forecasts can be obtained from the CPC web site at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) ...Long Range Probabilistic Outlooks... In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Little Blue River Deweese 10.0 16.0 17.0 : 10 19 <5 <5 <5 <5 :North Fork Solomon Glade 11.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Bow Creek Stockton 9.0 12.0 13.6 : <5 20 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Platte River Darr 11.5 12.5 13.0 : 15 18 12 15 11 12 Overton 7.5 12.0 14.0 : 13 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 Kearney 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 7 8 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Wood River Gibbon 15.0 16.0 16.5 : 14 20 12 15 11 14 Alda 10.0 11.0 12.2 : 25 36 18 20 12 15 Wood River Divers 19.5 20.5 21.5 : 9 13 5 10 <5 8 :Platte River Grand Island 6.5 7.0 7.5 : 14 17 11 16 7 11 :South Loup River Ravenna 5.0 8.0 10.0 : 21 19 7 7 <5 5 :Mud Creek Sweetwater 16.5 18.0 21.0 : <5 14 <5 6 <5 <5 :South Loup River Saint Michael 9.5 14.0 17.0 : 9 14 <5 5 <5 <5 :Middle Loup River Saint Paul 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 6 <5 5 <5 <5 :North Loup River Saint Paul 7.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cedar River Fullerton 9.0 15.0 18.0 : 5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Loup River Genoa 10.5 12.0 13.0 : 5 6 <5 5 <5 <5 :Beaver Creek Genoa 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 10 18 5 7 <5 5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Little Blue River Deweese 2.2 3.0 4.3 5.4 7.5 10.0 10.8 :North Fork Solomon Glade 2.8 2.8 2.8 4.0 7.2 9.5 9.8 :Bow Creek Stockton 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.6 6.2 7.8 8.1 :Platte River Darr 5.7 6.4 7.2 8.1 10.4 13.7 14.7 Overton 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.3 5.8 8.1 10.1 Kearney 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 4.7 6.1 7.5 :Wood River Gibbon 4.6 4.6 6.0 8.4 12.6 17.1 17.8 Alda 4.9 4.9 5.5 7.2 10.0 12.8 13.2 Wood River Divers 11.4 11.4 12.4 13.9 15.6 19.0 20.6 :Platte River Grand Island 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 5.2 7.2 7.8 :South Loup River Ravenna 2.7 2.7 3.5 4.3 4.8 5.6 8.6 :Mud Creek Sweetwater 5.5 5.5 7.3 10.7 12.3 15.6 16.1 :South Loup River Saint Michael 2.3 2.3 3.2 5.1 6.6 8.6 12.5 :Middle Loup River Saint Paul 1.3 1.3 2.1 3.0 3.7 5.0 7.1 :North Loup River Saint Paul 2.9 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.2 5.9 :Cedar River Fullerton 2.0 2.3 3.2 4.1 5.7 6.5 8.9 :Loup River Genoa 5.0 5.0 5.5 6.2 7.3 8.7 10.2 :Beaver Creek Genoa 3.4 3.7 5.2 7.5 11.1 15.1 16.9 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Little Blue River Deweese 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 :North Fork Solomon Glade 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 :Bow Creek Stockton 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.9 :Platte River Darr 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Overton 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Kearney 3.1 3.1 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 :Wood River Gibbon 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 Alda 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 Wood River Divers 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 :Platte River Grand Island 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 :South Loup River Ravenna 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 :Mud Creek Sweetwater 5.1 5.0 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.1 3.0 :South Loup River Saint Michael 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 :Middle Loup River Saint Paul 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 :North Loup River Saint Paul 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 :Cedar River Fullerton 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 :Loup River Genoa 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 :Beaver Creek Genoa 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service. ...Future Outlooks... The next/updated spring flood outlook will be issued Thursday, Feb. 29th. && Visit our local NWS office website for current weather/hydrological and climate information for South Central Nebraska and North Central Kansas at: https://www.weather.gov/hastings Additional climate information for the region can be obtained from the High Plains Regional Climate Center: https://hprcc.unl.edu Additional information on climatological outlooks can be found from the Climate Prediction Center: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Further information on drought conditions can be obtained at: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu https://www.drought.gov https://drought.unl.edu Information on mountain snowpack can be found at: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/snow-and-water- interactive-map NWS AHPS precipitation analysis maps can be found at: https://water.weather.gov/precip National snow analysis page can be found at: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov Soil Moisture: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring Reservoir Levels: www.usbr.gov/gp/hydromet/curres_google.htm For training on NWS river forecast graphics: www.youtube.com/watch?v=psIByj8EZY0 $$ Wesely/Pfannkuch ####018019131#### FGUS73 KTOP 152113 ESFTOP KSC003-027-029-031-041-059-061-111-117-131-139-149-157-161-177- 197-201-160000- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Topeka KS Issued By National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 313 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1... This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Topeka Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Republican River, Solomon River, Smoky Hill River, Big Blue River, Kansas River, Marais Des Cygnes River, Neosho River, and their tributaries in north central, northeast and east central Kansas. ...There is a near normal probability of flooding during the next three months... Outlook: The probability of flooding through mid-May is near normal across the NWS Topeka HSA. The highest chances of flooding during the outlook period range from 40 to 50 percent and include the following locations: Big Blue River at Blue Rapids, Black Vermillion River at Frankfort, Salt Creek at Lyndon, and the Marias Des Cygnes River from Reading through Ottawa. Recent Conditions: During the past 30 days, above normal precipitation amounts were common across the NWS Topeka HSA. Most locations received at least 150 percent of normal precipitation during this period. The wettest area was generally in east-central Kansas where in excess of 200 percent of normal precipitation was observed. Widespread above normal precipitation was observed across the local region during the past 90-day period. Almost all locations received in excess of 200 percent of normal precipitation. Liquid precipitation amounts ranged from 3 to 7 inches above normal. Mean temperature the past 30 days was 2 to 5 degrees above normal across the the Topeka HSA. Temperature values ranged in the lower to middle 30s. 90-day mean temperatures were generally 1 to 3 degrees above normal. Present Conditions: The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that around 80 percent of the Topeka HSA is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions. In addition, roughly 50 percent of the HSA is affected by moderate drought. There is currently no snow cover over Kansas and southern Nebraska. In addition, little if any snow cover is found across the headwaters of the Republican River in northeast Colorado. USGS 7-day averaged streamflow values across the region showed much above normal streamflow conditions across the Marias Des Cygnes and Neosho Basins. Below normal streamflow was observed across the Republican and Kansas Basin upstream of Topeka. The remainder of the NWS Topeka HSA reported generally normal streamflow conditions. Future Conditions: Over the next 7 days, a tenth of an inch or less of liquid precipitation is forecast across the Topeka HSA. The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern highly favored for above normal temperatures. Normal precipitation amounts are anticipated. Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear signal regarding temperature for the local area. The greatest likelihood of above normal temperatures will be across the northern third of the United States. The precipitation outlook slightly favors above normal amounts across the NWS Topeka HSA. The next Spring Flood Outlook will be issued February 29, 2024. --------------------------------------------------------------------- In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Big Blue River Marysville 35.0 38.2 43.0 : <5 9 <5 6 <5 <5 :Little Blue River Hollenberg 19.0 19.4 45.0 : 5 6 5 6 <5 <5 :Mill Creek Washington 18.0 19.0 35.0 : 15 27 9 18 <5 <5 :Little Blue River Barnes 16.0 23.0 39.0 : 15 25 5 8 <5 <5 :Big Blue River Blue Rapids 26.0 52.0 68.0 : 48 52 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Black Vermillion River Frankfort 19.0 27.5 40.5 : 47 49 <5 5 <5 <5 :Fancy Creek Randolph 16.0 24.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Chapman Creek Chapman 19.0 26.0 37.0 : 12 28 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Lyon Creek Junction City 21.0 35.0 39.0 : 24 35 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Junction City 22.0 32.0 44.0 : 13 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Ft Riley 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 11 15 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Wildcat Creek Manhattan Scenic 14.0 17.0 23.0 : 14 20 8 13 <5 <5 :Kansas River Manhattan 18.0 26.0 42.0 : 12 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 Wamego 19.0 26.0 38.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Vermillion Creek Wamego 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 9 20 <5 5 <5 <5 :Rock Creek Louisville 27.0 33.0 43.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Belvue 20.0 28.0 33.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cross Creek Rossville 25.0 29.0 31.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Mill Creek Paxico 21.0 31.0 33.0 : 37 41 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Topeka 26.0 27.0 44.0 : 6 6 6 6 <5 <5 :Soldier Creek Delia 26.0 26.5 29.5 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Topeka 29.0 34.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Kansas River Lecompton 17.0 23.8 27.0 : 15 21 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lawrence 18.0 20.0 29.0 : 9 15 5 6 <5 <5 :Wakarusa River Lawrence 23.0 25.0 45.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Republican River Scandia 10.0 13.0 15.0 : 6 9 5 6 <5 <5 :Buffalo Creek Jamestown 16.0 19.0 35.0 : 9 16 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Republican River Concordia 15.0 18.0 30.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Elk Creek Clyde 14.0 22.0 36.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Republican River Clay Center 15.0 22.5 28.0 : 14 25 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Solomon River Glasco 22.0 25.0 34.0 : 6 21 <5 16 <5 <5 Minneapolis 26.0 30.0 38.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Salt Creek Ada 18.0 20.0 24.0 : <5 14 <5 13 <5 <5 :Solomon River Niles 24.0 28.0 34.0 : 33 49 20 37 <5 <5 :Saline River Tescott 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 24 24 14 19 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Abilene Sand Spri 27.0 30.0 33.0 : 10 20 <5 9 <5 <5 :Mud Creek Abilene 15.0 27.0 33.0 : 7 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Smoky Hill River Enterprise 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 21 37 20 34 <5 <5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Reading 19.0 21.0 45.0 : 48 51 45 49 <5 <5 Quenemo 17.0 24.5 40.5 : 57 55 32 32 <5 <5 :Salt Creek Lyndon 10.0 16.0 24.0 : 46 47 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Ottawa 30.0 33.0 45.0 : 44 49 11 9 <5 <5 :Pottawatomie Creek Garnett 26.0 32.0 34.0 : 33 34 <5 <5 <5 <5 Lane 23.0 24.0 28.5 : 16 16 12 11 <5 <5 :Turkey Creek Seneca 21.0 23.5 40.0 : 10 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Cottonwood River Emporia 20.0 24.0 32.0 : 32 27 18 14 <5 <5 :Neosho River Americus 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 9 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 Emporia 19.0 19.5 30.5 : 22 17 20 16 <5 <5 Neosho Rapids 22.0 23.0 44.0 : 34 23 31 19 <5 <5 Burlington 27.0 40.0 45.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 Leroy 23.0 23.0 38.0 : 11 8 11 8 <5 <5 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Big Blue River Marysville 14.6 16.4 19.0 22.8 26.8 30.5 33.8 :Little Blue River Hollenberg 2.8 3.5 4.3 6.0 9.1 12.1 18.2 :Mill Creek Washington 1.8 1.9 5.9 12.0 16.1 18.8 21.8 :Little Blue River Barnes 5.1 6.0 7.0 11.0 13.3 17.9 23.2 :Big Blue River Blue Rapids 16.9 18.9 20.6 25.5 30.0 33.7 41.7 :Black Vermillion River Frankfort 4.5 7.0 13.3 17.4 21.7 26.4 27.3 :Fancy Creek Randolph 0.7 1.4 3.2 4.8 6.5 9.4 10.2 :Chapman Creek Chapman 4.4 4.8 6.4 9.0 13.3 20.4 21.4 :Lyon Creek Junction City 6.8 7.4 9.8 11.9 18.9 31.2 31.8 :Smoky Hill River Junction City 3.0 3.1 5.0 7.7 12.6 24.8 25.5 :Kansas River Ft Riley 5.7 7.3 8.3 10.3 13.7 22.2 23.5 :Wildcat Creek Manhattan Scenic 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.9 7.1 15.2 20.0 :Kansas River Manhattan 6.7 7.1 8.0 9.8 13.5 19.3 20.9 Wamego 4.3 4.9 6.7 9.5 12.4 16.3 17.5 :Vermillion Creek Wamego 3.3 4.5 7.4 10.6 15.8 19.7 23.3 :Rock Creek Louisville 9.3 9.8 11.3 13.1 17.2 21.8 23.7 :Kansas River Belvue 7.0 8.1 9.0 11.1 14.1 17.4 18.2 :Cross Creek Rossville 8.3 9.3 12.3 15.7 20.5 23.3 24.3 :Mill Creek Paxico 4.6 5.7 8.0 12.6 25.2 28.3 29.8 :Kansas River Topeka 7.5 8.8 10.3 13.4 18.4 24.5 27.8 :Soldier Creek Delia 6.4 7.1 9.2 17.6 21.9 23.7 24.9 Topeka 1.8 2.7 4.2 8.4 14.4 19.3 21.6 :Kansas River Lecompton 5.4 5.7 6.7 10.2 15.2 17.9 20.4 Lawrence 9.5 9.8 10.5 13.1 16.2 17.9 20.5 :Wakarusa River Lawrence 6.5 7.4 9.7 15.9 19.5 21.9 23.9 :Republican River Scandia 1.5 2.1 2.8 3.8 5.1 8.5 12.4 :Buffalo Creek Jamestown 1.0 1.0 1.0 8.0 11.3 15.6 16.9 :Republican River Concordia 5.3 5.6 6.1 7.0 8.8 12.1 13.8 :Elk Creek Clyde 4.6 4.6 5.8 6.6 7.1 7.6 7.7 :Republican River Clay Center 7.4 7.6 9.0 11.6 13.8 15.3 16.4 :Solomon River Glasco 3.5 3.7 4.6 7.2 13.7 20.8 23.1 Minneapolis 2.2 2.2 2.9 4.2 11.5 16.1 17.4 :Salt Creek Ada 4.1 4.1 4.1 5.7 8.1 12.6 16.0 :Solomon River Niles 4.1 5.2 7.2 11.1 26.9 29.2 29.4 :Saline River Tescott 5.8 5.8 6.8 10.3 22.8 29.7 31.2 :Smoky Hill River Abilene Sand Spri 5.7 7.2 10.3 14.5 19.6 26.9 29.6 :Mud Creek Abilene 1.5 1.9 4.1 6.0 9.7 14.1 15.2 :Smoky Hill River Enterprise 8.6 9.7 13.0 16.7 22.3 31.8 33.9 :Marais Des Cygnes River Reading 5.4 6.9 10.3 18.2 23.6 24.5 24.8 Quenemo 7.1 7.3 12.6 18.6 26.3 28.3 29.9 :Salt Creek Lyndon 2.3 3.3 5.6 9.1 12.6 14.3 15.2 :Marais Des Cygnes River Ottawa 10.2 12.3 16.5 27.6 32.1 33.0 34.8 :Pottawatomie Creek Garnett 9.6 15.2 20.4 24.0 26.5 28.0 29.0 Lane 7.5 9.1 11.6 18.3 22.1 24.9 25.7 :Turkey Creek Seneca 0.9 1.3 9.3 12.8 17.4 21.1 22.4 :Cottonwood River Emporia 4.1 4.9 9.4 14.9 22.2 26.1 26.5 :Neosho River Americus 5.7 6.4 9.2 12.3 20.6 25.9 26.8 Emporia 10.5 11.2 12.3 13.6 17.9 23.6 24.1 Neosho Rapids 4.7 6.3 9.8 17.0 25.0 27.8 29.8 Burlington 9.4 10.8 12.6 20.6 23.0 23.8 26.8 Leroy 7.1 9.4 11.3 18.7 20.0 23.4 25.5 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 02/17/2024 - 05/17/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Big Blue River Marysville 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.6 :Little Blue River Hollenberg 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 :Mill Creek Washington 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 :Little Blue River Barnes 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 :Big Blue River Blue Rapids 14.6 14.5 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.9 13.9 :Black Vermillion River Frankfort 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 :Fancy Creek Randolph 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 :Chapman Creek Chapman 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 :Lyon Creek Junction City 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 :Smoky Hill River Junction City 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 :Kansas River Ft Riley 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 :Wildcat Creek Manhattan Scenic 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 :Kansas River Manhattan 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Wamego 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 :Vermillion Creek Wamego 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.0 :Rock Creek Louisville 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 :Kansas River Belvue 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 :Cross Creek Rossville 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 :Mill Creek Paxico 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.3 :Kansas River Topeka 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 :Soldier Creek Delia 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 :Kansas River Lecompton 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 Lawrence 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 :Wakarusa River Lawrence 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 :Republican River Scandia 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 :Buffalo Creek Jamestown 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 :Republican River Concordia 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 :Elk Creek Clyde 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 :Republican River Clay Center 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.8 5.8 5.8 :Solomon River Glasco 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Minneapolis 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 :Salt Creek Ada 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 :Solomon River Niles 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 :Saline River Tescott 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 :Smoky Hill River Abilene Sand Spri 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 :Mud Creek Abilene 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 :Smoky Hill River Enterprise 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Reading 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 Quenemo 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 :Salt Creek Lyndon 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 :Marais Des Cygnes River Ottawa 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 :Pottawatomie Creek Garnett 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.0 Lane 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 :Turkey Creek Seneca 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Visit our web site weather.gov/top for more weather and water information. $$ SAW