####018004217#### FGUS73 KIWX 152218 CCA ESFIWX Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook...Corrected National Weather Service Northern Indiana 448 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 Day Probabilistic Forecast... This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations along the Kankakee River Basin in northern Indiana and for the Saint Joseph River Basin in northern Indiana and southern Michigan. In the table below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. For example, the Kankakee River at Davis, Indiana has a flood stage of 10 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance the river will rise to or above 10.1 feet. The St. Joseph River at South Bend, Indiana has a flood stage of 5.5 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the river will rise to or above 6.0 feet. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations ...Valid February 15 2024 - March 15, 2024... Kankakee River Basin... Location FS(ft) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% Kankakee River Davis IN 10 7.0 7.5 7.8 8.3 9.1 10.1 11.0 Yellow River Plymouth IN 13 8.0 8.7 9.7 11.0 12.8 14.0 14.6 Knox IN 10 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.5 8.2 9.0 9.1 Saint Joseph River Michigan Basin... Location FS(ft) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% Saint Joseph River Michigan Three Rivers MI 7 5.4 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.5 9.1 10.0 Mottville MI 8 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.8 8.7 9.3 Elkhart IN 24 20.9 21.2 21.7 22.3 23.4 26.0 26.6 South Bend IN 5.5 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.9 6.0 8.3 9.1 Niles MI 11 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.4 10.8 13.8 14.8 Elkhart River Goshen IN 7 3.8 4.1 4.5 5.0 6.5 8.1 9.8 Cosperville IN 6 4.8 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.3 7.5 7.8 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data including current conditions of the river, soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete range of probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are a part of NOAA National Weather Services Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Additional supportive data and explanations are available on AHPS at www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes. ...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions... Snow cover and river ice are virtually absent due to the warmest 10 day start to February in addition to a very mild winter. Soil moisture is a little above normal due to a wet January over the St Joseph and the Upper Kankakee basins with over 4 1/2 inches of rain or water equivalent snow at South Bend. ...Weather Outlook... The generally mild pattern is expected to persist into March with best chances for below normal precipitation. Best chances are for near normal rainfall March through May. ...River Conditions... As of Thursday afternoon, February 15th, all rivers were below action stage in the St Josepth and the Upper Kankakee basins. No ice was present. ...Overall Flood Risk... Overall flood risk is below normal through May. ...Flood Terminology... The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible. The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to save property. The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation and property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of people and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary roads. The next long-range probabilistic outlook will be issued on February 29th by 5 pm EST for the Kankakee and Saint Joseph River basins. $$ Skip ####018000820#### FGUS76 KEKA 152218 ESFEKA CAC015-023-033-045-105-161015- Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Eureka CA 218 PM PST Thu Feb 15 2024 Two sequential strong storm systems will impact the region with periods of heavy rainfall and periods of strong winds. Soils are already saturated in many locations, and the additional rainfall will likely lead to numerous slides plus urban and small stream flooding. There is also a risk for minor flooding from main stem rivers. The first storm system will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain from Friday night through Saturday night. The second system will be focused more over the King Range through Lake and Mendocino counties, and will bring an additional 2 to 5 inches of rain from Sunday afternoon through early Tuesday. $$ JJW