####018005385#### FGUS71 KCTP 152259 ESFCTP PAC001-009-013-021-023-027-033-035-037-041-043-047-055-057-061-067- 071-075-081-083-087-093-097-099-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-123-133- 161100- Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 559 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 During the winter and spring, the National Weather Service issues a series of winter and spring Flood Potential Outlooks. These outlooks estimate the potential for river flooding (not flash flooding) across central Pennsylvania based on a current assessment of the hydrometeorological factors that contribute to river flooding. This outlook does not address the severity or extent of future river flooding. It is also important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river flood potential is considered low. This outlook covers the Susquehanna River Basin including the West Branch, Juniata, and much of the Middle and Lower Susquehanna Valley. Also covered are portions of the Upper Allegheny and Monongahela Basins, including areas in Warren, McKean, Somerset and Cambria counties. The flood potential outlook for the period from Thursday, February 15th through Thursday, February 29th, 2024 is NEAR AVERAGE. Here are the details concerning the hydrometeorological factors that went into this outlook: Current flooding...None. No flooding is occurring in the region at this time. Recent precipitation..Near to slightly below average. See:www.weather.gov/marfc/Precipitation_Departures. Snow conditions...Near average southeast to slightly below average elsewhere. There is still a bit of snow cover across much of central Pennsylvania. Snow depths are generally 2 inches or less outside of Schuylkill County, which still has several inches on the ground. Snow data and information sources include the NOAA/NWS Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (www.nohrsc.noaa.gov)...the US Army Corps of Engineers...NWS Cooperative Observers...the Community Rain, Hail and Snow Network (COCORAHS) and others. Snow depth and basin average water equivalent estimates can be seen at www.weather.gov/marfc/Snow and www.nohrsc.noaa.gov. River Ice...Below average. A mild start to February has prevented much in the way of ice development. Follow river ice conditions at https://www.weather.gov/ctp/riverice. Stream flow conditions...Near to slightly above average. A relatively dry stretch has allowed streamflows to fall to closer to average for much of the area. For current streamflow conditions, please visit waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt. Real time water data is available from the United States Geological Survey by visiting http://water.usgs.gov. Soil moisture conditions...Near to slightly above average across the west to well above average across the east. The long term Palmer Drought Severity Index is used to infer deep soil moisture conditions. The latest chart can be found at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_ monitoring/palmer.gif. Additional soil moisture data shows the above average conditions across much of the eastern Mid-Atlantic, with slightly drier soils farther to the west. For more information, visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/ and then click on U.S. Monitoring. Ground Water...Near average. Real-time USGS groundwater monitoring wells indicate that current groundwater levels are near average. To see groundwater levels, visit waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/gw. Reservoir Conditions...Near average. Most major reservoirs across central Pennsylvania are holding storages that are running near average for this time of year. Future Weather Conditions... The coming two-week period looks like it should be accompanied by predominantly above-normal temperatures and near to above-normal precipitation. The NWS CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks both call for a good chance of above average temperatures. Precipitation-wise, the 6-10 day outlook leans toward above average precipitation across northwestern Pennsylvania and near average precipitation across the southeast, while the 8-14 day outlook leans toward above average precipitation statewide. Visit www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ to view the latest outlooks. Summary of conditions impacting the flood potential for the period from February 15th to February 29th, 2024: Current Flooding...None. Recent Precipitation...Near to slightly below average. Snow Conditions...Near average southeast to slightly below average elsewhere. River Ice...Below average. Stream Flow Conditions...Near to slightly above average. Soil Moisture Conditions...Near to slightly above average across the west to well above average across the east. Ground Water...Near average. Reservoir Conditions...Near average. Future Weather Conditions...Near to above average temperatures and precipitation. Again, the overall flood potential for the next two weeks is NEAR AVERAGE. The next outlook will be issued on February 29th, 2024. Additional hydrometeorological information can be found by visiting the NWS State College webpage at http://weather.gov/ctp. $$ CJE