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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook

National Weather Service Shreveport LA

828 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024





...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range

probabilistic outlook for the Neches River basin of East Texas...





In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the

chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during

the next 90 days. For example...the Mud Creek near Jacksonville

Texas flood stage is 9 feet. There is a 50 percent change the

Mud Creek will rise above 9.7 feet during the next 90 days.





        Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations

        valid for February 14, 2024 through May 14, 2024





     Location      FS  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%

------------------ --  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---



Mud Creek

 Jacksonville 7E    9  7.9  8.5  8.9  9.5  9.7 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.9

East Fork Angelina River

 Cushing 4N        15 14.6 15.3 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.2 16.5 17.4

Angelina River

 Alto 8E           29 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.8 29.3 29.4 29.6 30.2

Attoyac Bayou

 Chireno 3E        14 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.8

Ayish Bayou

 San Augustine 10S 12 10.6 11.7 12.1 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.9

Neches River

 Neches 4NE        12 12.9 14.0 14.6 15.2 15.8 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.3

 Alto 8SW          16 16.4 16.8 17.5 17.9 18.6 19.0 19.1 19.4 20.1

 Diboll 4S         12 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.3

 Rockland          26 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 21.1 23.0 25.4 26.5 28.2





Location      90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%

------------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----

Lk Palestine 345.5 345.7 345.9 346.2 346.4 346.6 346.9 347.4 347.8



This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed 

using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological 

and stream flow data.  These probabilities also account for the 

current river flows and soil moisture conditions.  By providing the 

complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk 

associated with long range planning decisions can be determined.



Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the 

internet at this URL:  

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv (internet address 

URL is all lower case).



Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third 

Thursday of every month.



$$



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