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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook

National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA

1143 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024



...Flood Potential is near normal the next two weeks...



...Flood Potential is normal to below normal through spring...



The coverage of this outlook is limited to the states of Ohio 

and Pennsylvania.



PAST PRECIPITATION THE LAST 14 DAYS...

Over the last 14 days, precipitation ranging from 0.10 to 1.5 

inches fell along and north of the Ohio River.



For more information please visit:

https://water.weather.gov/precip



SOIL MOISTURE...

Soil moisture is currently below normal across a large portion of 

the basin. Most soil moisture is in the 20-60th percentile range. 

However, southwest Ohio, Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Indiana, 

southeast Illinois and southwest West Virgina are in the 10-30th 

percentile. Normal is considered in the 30-70th percentile range. 



State rankings:

Ohio - Below normal west and normal east

Western Pennsylvania - Normal 



For more information please visit: 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/Monitoring/smp.shtml



USGS STREAMFLOWS... 

The past seven-day streamflows have been below normal north of the 

Ohio River and normal to above normal south of the Ohio River. 



State rankings:

Ohio - Below normal

Western Pennsylvania - Below normal 





For more information please visit:

https://watermonitor.gSouthwestern New York - Isolated minor

flooding possible West Virginia - Minor flooding possible Western

Virginia - Minor flooding possible Kentucky - Minor to isolated

moderate flooding possible Tennessee - Isolated minor flooding

possibleov



RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...

Reservoir levels are near the normal winter pools across the Ohio 

Valley. 



OHIO RIVER FLOWS...

Ohio River flows are currently below normal. 



Observed values are in percent of normal with above 100% are above 

normal and below 100% are below normal. 



Pittsburgh - 70%

Huntington - 55%  

Cincinnati - 60%

Louisville - 70%

Evansville - 65%

Smithland  - 85%



SNOW WATER CONTENT IN SNOWPACK...

Little snow water content is present in the Ohio River basin. Less

than 1.00 inch liquid equivalent exists across the Lake Erie 

snowbelt and higher elevations in the Appalachians. 



For more information please visit:

https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa 



ICE COVER...

There is currently no significant ice cover on rivers in the Ohio 

River basin.



2-WEEK FUTURE RAINFALL AND FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

For the end of February into the first week of March, the Ohio 

Valley will be warmer and wetter. This will allow for some rivers

to reach action to minor flood stage. Isolated moderate flooding 

is possible. 





OHIO RIVER AVERAGE FLOW FORECASTS THE NEXT 2 WEEKS...

River flows over the next 2 weeks will return to near normal 

values with the forecast rainfall. 



Values are in percent of normal with greater than 100% being above 

normal and values below 100% being below normal. 



Pittsburgh - 100%

Huntington - 110%

Cincinnati - 110%

Louisville - 110%

Evansville - 100%

Smithland  - 110%



For more information on the 10-day flood risk potential please 

visit: https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs



Official forecasts can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc





90-DAY FLOOD OUTLOOK...

The outlook continues to favor normal to slightly below normal 

flood risk through spring which means minor to isolated moderate 

floods are possible.



STATE BY STATE 90-DAY EXPECTED RIVER FLOOD RISK...



Ohio - Minor flooding possible

Western Pennsylvania - Isolated minor flooding possible





For more information on the 90-day flood risk please visit:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps/long_range.php





ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...



Flood risk is defined as follows:

Below normal - flooding will be limited

Normal - minor flooding in the typical locations

Above normal - widespread flooding with some moderate 

or major possible



Winter/spring flood outlooks are issued weekly by the National

Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center during winter and 

early spring to summarize basin hydrological and meteorological 

conditions. It also assesses the potential for flood risk. The 

outlooks are based on current and forecast conditions.



The Ohio River Forecast Center also issues a 30-90 day water 

resources outlook monthly throughout the year for a continuous 

water watch. This can be found at 

https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/wro 



Factor considered in assessing flood potential include 

antecedent conditions, past precipitation, current streamflows 

and reservoir levels, soil moisture, water content in snow cover, 

ice conditions and future precipitation.



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