####018003024#### AWUS01 KWNH 042035 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-050200- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0222 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 435 PM EDT Sat May 04 2024 Areas affected...western to central TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 042032Z - 050200Z Summary...Increasing thunderstorm coverage across western to central TX will result in a likely threat of flash flooding through the evening. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be common but localized rates of 2 to just over 3 inches per hour will also be possible. Overlap of heavy rain with wet antecedent soils, especially over sections of the Hill Country and central TX will increase runoff potential. Discussion...20Z radar imagery over West TX showed convective initiation underway with cells off of the Davis Mountains and surrounding terrain, as well as near the intersection of a dryline and stationary front, with a developing supercell 15-20 miles northwest of Wink, TX. Visible satellite imagery showed weaker convection just north of a remnant outflow boundary extending east from Wink, to 30 miles north of San Angelo. The environment near and south of the outflow boundary contained 2000 to 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitable water (higher to east) via the 20Z SPC mesoanalysis, with decreasing CIN over the past few hours. As increasing ascent overspreads the area through 00Z, ahead of a mid to upper-level trough over AZ/NM and associated left exit region of a 110-120 kt jet max over northern Mexico, thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the Permian Basin within the warm sector. Low level easterly flow within the cool sector will promote upslope enhancement to thunderstorms to the immediate north of outflow. While uncertain, convection may develop farther east over the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor toward 00Z as well but low level convergence is less defined with eastern extent and thick cloud cover is limiting surface heating, with a capping inversion likely present between 850-700 mb as seen on 12/18Z MAF and 12Z DRT sounding data. Individual cell motions should be somewhat progressive from the SW at 10-20 kt but more organized supercells will be slower and more W to E in movement. Parallel movement to existing boundaries will support training with some upstream development and potential for rainfall rates in excess of 2 in/hr, but a general movement of thunderstorms toward the east is expected through 02Z, out ahead of the approaching upper trough. Areas of flash flooding are expected to become likely thorough the evening as thunderstorm coverage increases. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32650273 32530084 32319971 32069854 31879724 30869684 29989833 30330193 30760358 32110387 ####018001173#### PENA01 KWNH 041200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12040524@@0NMCGPHMPD xP@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@Cd~}{zzz}|||||}~ @@d@@d@@3vM~~~|}||||z|{o{z{|}@@vM@@vM@@ @~}zz|||}@@@@@@@@+k ~~|{{{l{{{{{|||}~~@@k @@k @@a0219 @@`0220 @@`0221 @@s0222 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 05/04/2024 2035Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @