####018002464#### AWUS01 KWNH 042315 FFGMPD FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-050200- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0223 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 714 PM EDT Sat May 04 2024 Areas affected...southeastern AL, southwestern GA, northern FL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 042313Z - 050200Z SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain with 2-3 in/hr rainfall rates at times, may produce areas of flash flooding across portions of far southwestern GA and possibly into southeastern AL. Uncertainty exists with how long the threat will persist, but at least another 1-2 hours seems probable. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery through 23Z has shown a persistent area of training extending from the southern AL/GA border into the western GA/FL border. Relatively weak inflow of 10-15 kt was observed via the KTLH VAD wind plot in the 925-850 mb layer, with mean steering flow parallel to the outflow, supporting training from NW to SE. The region also resided on the southern edge of an upper level diffluent flow with a departing mid-level shortwave to the north. Peak MRMS rainfall rates have been in the 2-3 in/hr range and MRMS estimated 2-4 inches has fallen over the past 3 hours (ending 23Z). MLCAPE was 1000-2000 J/kg just south of the outflow boundary (per SPC mesoanalysis data) which has recently started to show some southward propagation into northern FL. This has caused a southward shift to heavy rainfall over Grady and Thomas counties, but farther upstream toward the AL/GA border, activity remained stationary. Conditions appear to be steady state over the next 1-2 hours, but some further weakening of activity is expected across eastern locations as the outflow sags southward, however some backbuilding of heavy rain/training into southeastern AL will be possible. Flash flood guidance across this region of the Southeast is high at ~4-6 inches in 3 hours, but the persistence of training with occasional rainfall rates in the 2-3 in/hr range will allow eventual runoff and potential for flash flooding. Confidence in the maintenance of heavy rain across the region beyond 01Z is low, but the area will continue to be monitored. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31618537 30908371 30438370 30468456 30718509 31318573 ####018001139#### PENA01 KWNH 041200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12040524@@0NMCGPHMPD xP@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@f|||~~~@@f@@f@@Cd~}{zzz}|||||}~ @@d@@d@@3vM~~~|}||||z|{o{z{|}@@vM@@vM@@ @~}zz|||}@@@@@@@@`0220 @@`0221 @@s0222 @@g0223 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 05/04/2024 2315Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @