####018002836#### AWUS01 KWNH 020157 FFGMPD TXZ000-020800- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0206 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 956 PM EDT Wed May 01 2024 Areas affected...TX Hill Country into the Heart of TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 020200Z - 020800Z Summary...Scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding likely with 3-5"+ additional localized totals through the early overnight. A locally significant to extreme flooding event is also possible, given the potential for greater than 5" and locally very wet antecedent conditions. Discussion...Multiple clusters of convection have organized across portions of central and eastern TX (from the Hill Country to the Heart of Texas), resulting in impressive 2-5" localized totals over the past 3 hours. The mesoscale environment will continue to support convective development and organization into the overnight hours, as the air mass is characterized by high instability (SB CAPE 1500-3000 J/kg) and abundant, anomalously high, moisture (PWATs 1.7-2.1 inches, between the 90th percentile and max moving average per SPC sounding climatology). While the 12z/18z CAMs have really struggled to properly develop convection through the time of writing, the HRRR has managed to 'catch up' more with reality in depicting convection in the proper places. This is a bit concerning, however, considering that some of the latest runs of the HRRR (through 00z) depict additional 5-8" localized totals through 07z. And even though the 18z HREF is off with the placement of convection relative to reality, there is still a concerning signal for 5" exceedance (20-30%) across southern portions of the MPD. This also corresponds to similar probabilities (20-30%) for the 10 year ARI QPF exceedance, and a bit higher probabilities (20-40%) for 6-hr FFG exceedance. Given the concerning meteorological environment and indications for locally significant rainfall rainfall, scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding are considered to be likely. A locally significant to extreme flooding event is also possible, given both the elevated probability for localized totals greater than 5" and very wet antecedent conditions across some eastern portions of the MPD (per NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-100 cm soil moisture percentiles of 90% or greater, and MRMS imagery indicating locally 6"+ over the prior 48 hours in the vicinity of College Station). Churchill ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV...SJT... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32029661 31939557 31399478 30749509 30249557 29579655 29359802 29459944 30300057 31170028 31379902 31669776 ####018000899#### PENA01 KWNH 021200 @UHPISF000CNč MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12020524@@0NMCGPHMPD b@!' `' ` @ ęž& ęBń7)p&ŹPNAM02@@>”Sţ{ý{ýzü|ý|ü{ü{ű}ű}ú~ű~ú~úúúúúűúűúűúűüý˙€‚ƒ„††††††…†………………†††…†~†~…}ƒ||˙{ţ{ţ|@@”S€@@”S€@@6K•€s˙zý{ü}ü}ű}ú}ů~úúűůúîűüúý˙€„„ƒƒ‚‚‚ƒ„ƒ…ƒƒ…†…††‡~†~†„~…}€x|˙{€{˙{€{@@K•€@@K•€@@Á€0205 @@mo€0206 @@d&€MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d&ţ€ OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d&ü€ TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d&ú€ ISSUED 05/02/2024 0157Z @@ d™€NOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d™ţ€ WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d™ü€ FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d™ú€ WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @