####018000899#### PENA01 KWNH 021200 @UHPISF000CNč MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12020524@@0NMCGPHMPD b@!' `' ` @ ęž& ęBń7)p&ŹPNAM02@@>”Sţ{ý{ýzü|ý|ü{ü{ű}ű}ú~ű~ú~úúúúúűúűúűúűüý˙€‚ƒ„††††††…†………………†††…†~†~…}ƒ||˙{ţ{ţ|@@”S€@@”S€@@6K•€s˙zý{ü}ü}ű}ú}ů~úúűůúîűüúý˙€„„ƒƒ‚‚‚ƒ„ƒ…ƒƒ…†…††‡~†~†„~…}€x|˙{€{˙{€{@@K•€@@K•€@@Á€0205 @@mo€0206 @@d&€MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d&ţ€ OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d&ü€ TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d&ú€ ISSUED 05/02/2024 0526Z @@ d™€NOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d™ţ€ WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d™ü€ FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d™ú€ WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @####018002487#### AWUS01 KWNH 020529 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-021127- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0207 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 128 AM EDT Thu May 02 2024 Areas affected...southern Oklahoma through central Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 020527Z - 021127Z Summary...An elongated mesoscale convective complex will continue to move eastward across the discussion area through 11Z. Flash flooding is possible in sensitive/low-lying areas. Discussion...Convection initially along a dryline in the Texas South Plains/Panhandle has grown into a linear convective complex over the past few hours. That complex extends along a line from near Lawton, Oklahoma southward through Junction, Texas currently. Rain rates were being held in check in most areas due to the forward-propagating nature of the line, although immediate development along and ahead of the line was causing areas of prolonged heavy rain rates into the 1.5-2 inch/hr range - particularly near/north of Lawton and near Breckenridge, TX. These trends are expected to continue for another 3-5 hours while the MCS treks eastward, eventually crossing the I-35 corridor through 07-08Z and reaching the US-75 corridor in the 0730-09Z timeframe. Ground conditions suggest that flash flood potential should remain fairly isolated through 11Z. FFGs are in the 2-3 inch/hr threshold in Texas, suggesting that any flash flood risk should remain isolated and tied to locations that can experience prolonged heavier rain rates. Conditions in southern Oklahoma are more susceptible to flash flooding given recent very heavy rainfall in that area and lowered FFGs (around the 1-2 inch/hr range - locally lower). Thus, the flash flood risk is higher north of the Red River. Areas of 1-3 inch rainfall totals are expected through 11Z this morning. Models also suggest potential for this MCS to weaken with time especially after 09Z and in areas that have already been convectively overturned (i.e., central Texas) or have weaker surface-based instability (i.e., eastern Oklahoma). Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35679716 35389553 33979513 32559509 31339624 30979825 31259929 32549944 33669935 35459918 ####018001095#### PENA01 KWNH 021200 @UHPISF000CNč MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12020524@@0NMCGPHMPD b@!' `' ` @ ęž& ęBń7)p&ŹPNAM02@@D*Áƒ„†…†††…‡††††„~ƒ|ƒ|‚{‚{‚z{‚z{‚{‚{z{{˙z˙{ţzţ{ýzü{ü{ü|ű}ű}ú~ú}ůú~űűúúűüüţ˙˙˙˙€˙€˙€˙˙˙€‚@@*Á€@@*Á€@@>”Sţ{ý{ýzü|ý|ü{ü{ű}ű}ú~ű~ú~úúúúúűúűúűúűüý˙€‚ƒ„††††††…†………………†††…†~†~…}ƒ||˙{ţ{ţ|@@”S€@@”S€@@6K•€s˙zý{ü}ü}ű}ú}ů~úúűůúîűüúý˙€„„ƒƒ‚‚‚ƒ„ƒ…ƒƒ…†…††‡~†~†„~…}€x|˙{€{˙{€{@@K•€@@K•€@@Á€0205 @@mo€0206 @@S̀0207 @@d&€MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d&ţ€ OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d&ü€ TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d&ú€ ISSUED 05/02/2024 0529Z @@ d™€NOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d™ţ€ WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d™ü€ FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d™ú€ WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @