####018002008#### AWUS01 KWNH 030008 FFGMPD TXZ000-030500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0210 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 806 PM EDT Thu May 02 2024 Areas affected...Northwest TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 030005Z - 030500Z Summary...Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to short-term totals of 3-4", isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. Discussion...Splitting supercell thunderstorms have erupted across Northwest TX late this afternoon, being fueled by a warm, humid air mass transported north from the Gulf of Mexico. That air mass is currently characterized by extreme instability (SB CAPE of 3000-6000 J/kg), PWATs of 1.0-1.3 inches (near the 90th percentile, per surrounding SPC sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear of ~40 kts. This parameter space should continue to support upscale growth of deep convection for several more hours, and the dominant right-mover favors a relatively slow SE to ESE trajectory at ~15 kts (per RAP hodographs). This should allow for the current peak 1-2"/hr rainfall rates to expand a bit, and the repeating of these rates could lead to localized short-term totals of 3-4" (as 6-hr 18z HREF 40-km neighborhood probabilities for 3" exceedance of 10-30% also suggest). As the dry line retreats west this evening, deep layer moisture flux convergence will rapidly diminish and convection may fairly rapidly dissipate. In the meantime, isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible where 2"+ amounts are locally able to accumulate (which is nearing or exceeding 3-hr FFGs). Churchill ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34129924 33959823 33469787 32939765 32159751 31739757 31199782 30939842 30939929 31239995 31850012 32720013 33450008 33859989 ####018000701#### PENA01 KWNH 031200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12030524@@0NMCGPHMPD m0@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@/x }{|||{{{z|zz{{{}}~~@@x@@x@@,0210 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 05/03/2024 0007Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @