####018002256#### AWUS01 KWNH 030527 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-031126- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0211 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 126 AM EDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma, far western Arkansas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 030526Z - 031126Z Summary...A convective cluster has recently expanded in coverage along an axis from near Tahlequah to near Shawnee. Slow movement and localized training has allowed for areas of 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates to develop. Localized flash flood potential exists as a result. Discussion...Storms have recently intensified and expanded in coverage along and just ahead of a cold front along the I-44 corridor from Tulsa to Oklahoma City. Ahead of this front, modest wind fields at the surface and aloft are allowing for slow eastward movement of cells amid an environment characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5 inch PW values, supporting efficient rainfall production beneath the storms. The slow eastward movement and orientation has also allowed for areas of 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates to develop in spots between Tahlequah and Shawnee - highest where cell mergers and local training has been most pronounced. These rates were exceeding local FFG (ranging from 1-2 inch/hr) across the area. The ongoing scenario is expected to translate slowly southward and eastward over the next 4-6 hours. Weak low-level shear will allow for cells to grow upscale into one or two forward-propagating linear segments that continue to produce locally heavy rainfall and at least 1 inch/hr rain rates through parts of the discussion area. FFG thresholds will continue to be approached or locally exceeded in at least a few locales through 11Z across the discussion area. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible as a result. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36599484 36369399 35589351 34789357 34199384 33899463 33989585 34319670 35049694 35699661 35979624 36379554 ####018000697#### PENA01 KWNH 031200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12030524@@0NMCGPHMPD m0@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@-_΂~}|{{{zp{{|}~~@@_΀@@_΀@@0211 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 05/03/2024 0526Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @