####018002101#### AWUS01 KWNH 030555 FFGMPD TXZ000-030853- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0212 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 155 AM EDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...central/eastern Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 030553Z - 030853Z Summary...Brief/localized heavy rainfall could lead to a flash flood risk in areas just east of Waco over the next couple hours. Discussion...Convection that had formed along a dryline in west-central Texas earlier this evening has persisted while growing upscale into a small linear segment that now extends from near Waco to near Temple along I-35 in central Texas currently. The storms had been sustained primarily due to upscale growth into a focused, propagating linear segment along the leading edge of a mature cold pool. These cells were producing 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates (estimated per MRMS), which ordinarily wouldn't be significant for the region. However, parts of the area downstream of the convection have experienced 2-5 inches of rain in the past 24 hours (and 5-10 inches over the past 72 hours), with wet local ground conditions supporting efficient runoff and flash flood potential. The cluster is currently outperforming many models in terms of longevity, and may continue to do so for a couple more hours given its organization. Weaker instability immediately downstream of the convection may allow for gradual weakening over time, however, and a more southward propagation of this cluster into greater instability may be needed for any further persistence beyond 09-10Z. Given the scenario and doubts about persistence of this cluster through the night, a relatively short-duration MPD is being issued, and the convective scenario will be re-evaluated closer to 08Z. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SHV... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32049621 31739492 30439514 30419657 30679751 31569745 31869717 ####018000819#### PENA01 KWNH 031200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12030524@@0NMCGPHMPD m0@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@ai~{zyyz{}@@ai@@ai@@-_΂~}|{{{zp{{|}~~@@_΀@@_΀@@0211 @@vq0212 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 05/03/2024 0555Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @