####018000697#### PENA01 KWNH 031200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12030524@@0NMCGPHMPD m0@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@-_΂~}|{{{zp{{|}~~@@_΀@@_΀@@0211 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 05/03/2024 0900Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @####018002160#### AWUS01 KWNH 030902 FFGMPD LAZ000-TXZ000-031501- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0213 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 502 AM EDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...southeast Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 030901Z - 031501Z Summary...Deepening convection is forming in areas that received abundant rainfall yesterday. Sensitive ground conditions will likely promote additional runoff and flash flood concerns through 15Z today. Discussion...Renewed development of convection was ongoing in earnest this morning generally from Bryan/College Station east-southeastward through Gulf waters just south of Cameron, LA over the past hour or so. These storms were developing along remnant outflow from prior convection yesterday morning, with subtle 850mb confluence aiding updrafts amid 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and abundant moisture (1.8 inch PW). Unfortunately, east-northeasterly storm motions were fostering movement of convection into areas of southeast Texas that received abundant (2-7 inch) rainfall totals from yesterday, with ongoing flood/flash flood impacts continuing. The renewed convective development is likely to worsen ongoing flooding and cause new flash flooding in at least a few areas across southeast Texas through the morning. Models/observations suggest that convection will persist across the discussion area through at least 15Z, with areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates materializing as convection deepens and matures. Localized areas of cell mergers could prolong rain rates in a few spots as well. FFGs are quite low (0.25-1 inch/hr thresholds), further highlighting the sensitivity of the ground conditions across the discussion area. Flash flooding is likely in this regime. Cook ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31239501 31069405 30499324 30019309 29689339 29499411 29629501 29799611 30079670 30489671 30859634 31209564 ####018000833#### PENA01 KWNH 031200 @UHPISF000CN MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12030524@@0NMCGPHMPD m0@!' `' ` @ & B7)p&PNAM02@@&pF~}}~|||{{}~~~@@pF@@pF@@-_΂~}|{{{zp{{|}~~@@_΀@@_΀@@0211 @@`0213 @@d&MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d& OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d& TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d& ISSUED 05/03/2024 0902Z @@ dNOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @