####018002349#### AWUS01 KWNH 031614 FFGMPD LAZ000-TXZ000-031915- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0214 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1213 PM EDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Texas... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 031610Z - 031915Z SUMMARY...Persistent over-running thunderstorms continue to cross already flooded areas. WPC upgrade to Moderate Risk with 16z update. DISCUSSION... GOES-Visible imagery denotes broken but redeveloping convection across Southeast Texas with more than one cooling/overshooting top denoted in recent trends. Well defined outflow boundary to the southwest appears to have a weak inflection upon it further northwest across Madison to Brazos county, that a subtle ribbon of enhanced instability remains extending toward the NW. Veered low level flow through this axis appears to be sufficiently convergent with the outflow to support further isentropic ascent to tap this 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE axis. More than ample moisture but modest flux should support 1.5-2"/hr rates so additional localized 2-3" totals are probable with spots of 4" possible. As such, new development has persisted and moved downstream over highly saturated/flooded ground conditions across Walker to Liberty county. Even locations further northwest that had seen 2-5" in the last day or two toward Limestone county could quickly result in increased runoff and result in localized flash flooding over the next few hours. As a result, WPC is upgrading to a Moderate Risk within the Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Uncertainty will remain on longevity of these cells, the outflow boundary continues to slowly press westward and low level winds are likely to become increasingly parallel to said boundary as diurnal heating will focus pressure falls further west over the Cap Rock, Hill county and Permian Basin. Will monitor closely for further trends... and make this MPD shorter in nature (3hrs) given this uncertainty. Gallina ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31539630 31369555 31079473 30679396 30199367 29729407 29769500 30379624 30809679 31339682 ####018000687#### PENA01 KWNH 031200 @UHPISF000CNè MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12030524@@0NMCGPHMPD m0@!' `' ` @ ê¾& êBñ7)p&¬PNAM02@@(±<ü~úûùûûúúûüùûýþÿ‚„„†††……………~……~„~…|ƒ|‚|ÿ{þ{ü|@@±<€@@±<€@@vc€0214 @@d&€MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d&þ€ OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d&ü€ TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d&ú€ ISSUED 05/03/2024 1613Z @@ d™€NOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d™þ€ WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d™ü€ FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d™ú€ WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @