####018002617#### AWUS01 KWNH 031951 FFGMPD LAZ000-TXZ000-032250- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0216 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 351 PM EDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...southeastern TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 031949Z - 032250Z Summary...Areas of flash flooding are likely to continue in the short term over southeastern TX but with decreasing coverage and possible downward trend in flash flood potential through 22Z. Discussion...1930Z radar and visible/infrared satellite imagery showed continued thunderstorms, scattered over southeastern TX with repeating and training, such as recently observed over southeastern Montgomery County where MRMS-derived rainfall rates were 1 to 2+ in/hr. A number of outflow boundaries were present, with overrunning of low level flow supporting the regeneration of convective activity. Two of these outflow boundaries were observed on visible imagery and extended from SE to NW across I-10. There has been a trend of warming cloud tops overall for the region over the past 2-3 hours, but locally heavy rain falling atop saturated soils was still leading to lingering flash flood concerns. RAP analysis soundings within the cold pool indicate convection is rooted in the 850-700 mb layer. Sizable elevated CAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/kg was estimated across the region along with unidirectional SW flow above the LFC via RAP analysis and SPC mesoanalysis data, with little to no CIN. Short term trends in observations and select short term hires model guidance that have at least a halfway decent handle on the ongoing activity suggest that at least a short term flash flood threat will continue over portions of southeastern TX over the next 2-3 hours. Recent runs of the HRRR may be ending the flash flood threat too quickly. Current thinking is for a localized but likely threat for training cells to continue from near a Houston to College Station line with subsequent development backbuilding toward the SW with time. The good news is that soil moisture decreases with southwestward extent which when combined with an anticipated decrease in the coverage of cells, should help to limit the areal extent of impacts. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 30999592 30799511 30589473 30419439 29989381 29689374 29539417 29119499 29189557 29349668 29769697 30289700 30779669 ####018000835#### PENA01 KWNH 031200 @UHPISF000CNè MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12030524@@0NMCGPHMPD m0@!' `' ` @ ê¾& êBñ7)p&¬PNAM02@@*¹<ü~û|ü}û{ü|û}üüúüúôüûþþþÿ€‚ƒƒ„…„Š………~„~„…~…}†}…}ƒ|€|@@¹<€@@¹<€@@*þõúüýÿÿ€‚ƒ„ƒ„„…„……………‹„|‚|{€oÿzýzþ{ý{ü|ý{ü|û|û}û~ú~ú@@þ€@@þ€@@Ì€0215 @@€V€0216 @@d&€MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d&þ€ OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d&ü€ TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d&ú€ ISSUED 05/03/2024 1951Z @@ d™€NOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d™þ€ WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d™ü€ FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d™ú€ WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @