####018000835#### PENA01 KWNH 031200 @UHPISF000CNè MPDSUM@V2.0@0101700060@12030524@@0NMCGPHMPD m0@!' `' ` @ ê¾& êBñ7)p&¬PNAM02@@*¹<ü~û|ü}û{ü|û}üüúüúôüûþþþÿ€‚ƒƒ„…„Š………~„~„…~…}†}…}ƒ|€|@@¹<€@@¹<€@@*þõúüýÿÿ€‚ƒ„ƒ„„…„……………‹„|‚|{€oÿzýzþ{ý{ü|ý{ü|û|û}û~ú~ú@@þ€@@þ€@@Ì€0215 @@€V€0216 @@d&€MESOSCALE DISCUSSION SUMMARY GRAPHIC @@d&þ€ OF ALL VALID MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AT @@d&ü€ TIME OF PRODUCT CREATION:@@d&ú€ ISSUED 05/03/2024 2115Z @@ d™€NOAA/NWS/NCEP@@d™þ€ WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER @@d™ü€ FOR COLOR VERSION SEE: @@d™ú€ WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV @####018002675#### AWUS01 KWNH 032119 FFGMPD TXZ000-040300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0217 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 518 PM EDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...west-central TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 032118Z - 040300Z Summary...An evolving complex of thunderstorms across west-central TX is expected to result in at least localized flash flooding through 03Z. Slow moving and merging of cells will be capable of localized rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr. Discussion...21Z radar imagery showed a cluster of thunderstorms, including a slow moving supercell over Coke County with MRMS-derived rainfall rates of 2 to 3 in/hr. 20Z surface observations showed the storms, with some splitting nature observed, located near the intersection of a stationary front and remnant outflow boundary that extended southeastward from east of SPG to just north of SJT to west of ERV. 21Z SPC mesoanalysis data indicated MLCAPE of 2000 to ~3500 J/kg east of a dryline in West Texas along with PWAT values near 1 inch which increased with eastward/southeastward extent. Bunkers right moving cell motions are forecast to range from about 5 to 15 kt toward the southeast (via RAP guidance), with the remnant outflow boundary possibly acting as a focus for future cell development, including a recently developed cell northeast of SJT. Storm scale interactions fostering slow to stationary cell movement at times along with cell mergers may result in periods of time with a prolonged period of intense rainfall over a given location, perhaps 2 to 3+ in/hr. 19Z and 20Z WoFS guidance showed probabilities of at least 50 percent for hourly rainfall in excess of 2 inches through 01Z along with 60 to 80 percent probabilities of exceeding 3 inches of rain along a relatively narrow axis extending near the outflow boundary through 02Z. 3 to 5 inches of rain across portions of west-central TX, perhaps along a fairly narrow axis, is expected to result in areas of likely flash flooding through the early evening (~03Z). An increase in the low level jet near/beyond 00Z should be accompanied by increased lift across storm-induced outflow and possible increased coverage of storms across the region. While possibly staying localized, areas of flash flooding appear likely across the MPD threat area. Otto ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32930098 32850036 32379975 31429926 30529924 30459992 31040072 31740126 32600142