####018006759#### FNUS74 KEPZ 041549 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for OAKMONT...USFS National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 949 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 MDT on May 04. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... .DISCUSSION... A weak cold front was trying to push across the Sacramento Mountains this morning. Timberon is right between the two air masses. The further west the cold front pushes the winds will come more around to the east or southeast, but if the front stalls, the winds would stay out of the southwest. Just be aware of winds shifting southeast to southwest this morning. By late this afternoon the stronger southwest winds will win out. RH's, may be a little elevated this morning do to the moisture pushing in from the east, but by the afternoon we will see min RH's near 10%. We may see the southeast winds push in again later tonight, but they will quickly be flushed out as the southwest winds dominate early on Sunday. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected on Sunday. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 75. Min humidity........11 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 11 to 17 mph shifting to the southwest around 18 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......12700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 20 to 22 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (227000 knot-ft). Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........3 2 2 7 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............61 68 73 75 RH..............19 15 12 11 20 ft wind......SE 11 S 17 S 17 SW 18 20 ft wind gust.23 32 32 32 Mix hgt (ft)....11600 11600 12700 12700 Transport wind..S 20 S 20 SW 22 SW 22 Haines index....4 4 5 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..227 227 242 242 Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT EXNT EXNT .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Chance of pcpn......10 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 40. Max humidity........70 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 13 mph with gusts to around 28 mph shifting to the northeast 6 to 8 mph overnight. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South around 13 mph shifting to the east around 9 mph in the late evening and overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (187300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (4400 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........5 5 8 3 3 12 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............70 59 52 47 44 41 RH..............13 21 32 47 62 85 20 ft wind......SW 13 SW 13 W 7 NE 8 NE 8 E 6 20 ft wind gust.28 28 13 13 13 9 Mix hgt (ft)....10400 10400 500 500 600 600 Transport wind..S 13 S 13 E 9 E 9 E 9 E 9 Haines index....6 5 5 5 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..187 187 4 4 4 4 Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR .SUNDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 76. Min humidity........10 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 7 mph shifting to the southwest 10 to 18 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Mixing height.......7700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 9 to 17 mph increasing to southwest around 25 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (20500 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (118100 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to excellent (173200 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........20 9 1 3 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............40 56 69 75 RH..............96 43 21 12 20 FT wind......SE 7G9 S 10G23 SW 16G31 SW 18G32 Mix hgt (ft)....2300 2300 6700 7700 Transport wind..SE 9 SE 9 S 17 SW 25 Haines index....4 3 3 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..21 21 118 173 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD EXNT .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY... Clear. Breezy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds around 19 mph. .TUESDAY... Clear. Breezy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds around 22 mph. .WEDNESDAY... Clear. Breezy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds around 18 mph. $$ Forecaster...BRICE Requested by...Alamogordo Disptach Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2413146.0/EPZ .DELDT 05/04/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL nmadc@firenet.gov