####018006113#### FNUS73 KDLH 041645 FWSDLH Spot Forecast for Big Bull Riparian...USFS National Weather Service Duluth MN 1145 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 04. If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653. .DISCUSSION... A weaker system is presently moving through the burn area, earnest rain will subside early this afternoon turning into shower activity which will continue until sunset (here and there). After all is said and done, about 0.25 to 0.5" of precipitation is expected from this system. The sun should be out most of the day Sunday with typical diurnal clouds increasing, but still with sun breaks. High pressure overhead. MinRH may get down into the low 30s with deep mixing though wind speeds won't be too strong under the high pressure to really bring down the RH. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain showers through the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......50 percent. LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2 until 1600, then 1. Max temperature.....Around 54. Min humidity........66 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest around 7 mph shifting to the northwest 8 to 9 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (15400-21800 knot-ft). Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.11 inches. TIME (CDT) NOON 3 PM Sky cover.......CLOUDY MCLDY Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).30 40 LAL.............1 2 Temp............48 50 RH..............84 74 20 FT wind......S 3G7 SW 4G7 Mix hgt (ft)....2600 2600 Transport wind..SW 7 W 7 Haines index....3 3 SDspl kt-ft/100015 16 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming mostly clear (20-30 percent). Chance of rain showers early in the evening, then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of pcpn......40 percent. LAL.................1 until 1900, then 2 until 2100, then 1. Min temperature.....Around 34. Max humidity........96 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL decreasing to 700 ft AGL early in the evening. Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 12 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17400-29500 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (2500 knot-ft) early in the evening. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 10 PM 2 AM Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR Weather cov.....CHANCE Weather type....RNSHWR NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).40 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 Temp............51 43 37 RH..............68 86 96 20 FT wind......W 5G9 NW 3G11 NW 3G9 Mix hgt (ft)....2900 500 400 Transport wind..NW 12 NW 10 NW 9 Haines index....3 3 3 SDspl kt-ft/100030 5 4 .SUNDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 60. Min humidity........34 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 6 mph. Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL increasing to 5900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 14 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (3200-17100 knot-ft) increasing to good (45800-59500 knot-ft). Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLDY PCLDY Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 Temp............36 48 56 RH..............92 60 40 20 FT wind......W 3G6 NW 6G11 NW 6G9 Mix hgt (ft)....400 3500 5400 Transport wind..NW 9 NW 14 NW 13 Haines index....3 3 3 SDspl kt-ft/10003 42 58 $$ Forecaster...Jonathan Requested by...Jeb Backe Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413108.0/DLH .DELDT 05/04/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL jeb.backe@usda.gov