####018006812#### FNUS71 KAKQ 020849 FWSAKQ Spot Forecast for Plum Creek...The Nature Conservancy National Weather Service Wakefield VA 449 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 02. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service at 757-899-5734. .DISCUSSION... Dry and warm weather will prevail today high pressure builds across the region with afternoon min RH values around 40%. A very light SW wind in the morning will become 5 to 10 mph during the afternoon. A backdoor front drops across the region on Friday, with rain chances increasing Saturday. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. Max temperature.....Around 87. Min humidity........39 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph. Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 10 mph shifting to the west 12 to 14 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6200 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (54700 knot-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............3. ADI.................9 early in the morning increasing to 73 in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........27 15 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............69 74 78 82 84 86 86 86 85 RH..............76 66 58 49 43 39 39 39 40 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 20 FT wind gust.8 11 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.6 2.2 3.3 4.4 5.6 5.1 4.7 4.3 Transp wind dir.S SW SW SW W W W W W Transp wind spd.7 8 9 10 10 12 13 13 14 LVORI...........4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 ADI.............9 17 25 40 55 70 72 73 69 Haines index....3 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 11 17 28 40 54 55 54 50 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. Min temperature.....Around 60. Max humidity........81 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening becoming light, then becoming east 5 to 6 mph after 3 am. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 13 mph decreasing to 1 to 3 mph overnight, then shifting to the northwest around 2 mph after 3 am shifting to the northeast after 3 am. Smoke dispersal.....Good (31800 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (300 knot-ft) late in the night. LVORI...............3. ADI.................45 early in the evening decreasing to 0 late in the night. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........5 5 4 7 10 13 17 21 25 29 34 38 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............83 79 75 72 69 68 67 66 65 64 62 61 RH..............43 50 58 64 70 73 75 75 78 78 81 81 20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW S S E NE E E E 20 FT wind spd..8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 6 20 FT wind gust.14 12 11 8 8 6 6 5 5 6 8 11 Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Transp wind dir.W SW SW SW SW SW SW W W NW N NE Transp wind spd.13 10 8 7 6 5 3 1 1 2 5 7 LVORI...........1 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 ADI.............45 7 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 1 2 3 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..32 15 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 2 3 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. Max temperature.....Around 70. Min humidity........55 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 12 mph. Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 10 to 18 mph increasing to 18 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6700 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (41200 knot-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............3. ADI.................7 early in the morning increasing to 56 in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........37 35 38 42 46 49 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............61 63 67 68 69 66 RH..............78 65 59 59 55 58 20 ft wind......E 7 E 9 E 10 E 11 E 12 E 12 20 ft wind gust.13 15 18 19 20 20 Mix hgt (ft)....700 1200 1800 2200 2200 2000 Transport wind..E 10 E 17 E 17 E 18 E 21 E 20 LVORI...........4 2 1 1 1 1 ADI.............7 27 39 47 56 49 Haines index....3 2 2 2 2 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..7 18 27 34 41 35 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR FAIR POOR $$ Forecaster...BUTNER Requested by...Gabriel Cahalan Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413004.0/AKQ .DELDT 05/02/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL gcahalan@tnc.org