####018006248#### FNUS73 KAPX 020853 FWSAPX Spot Forecast for National City SVE RX...USDA Forest Service National Weather Service Gaylord MI 453 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 02. If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...Clouds will be on the increase at the burn site late today, but no rain is expected until tonight. Winds will be light this morning, becoming northeast by ignition, then east and a touch gusty this afternoon. Humidity levels will not be as dry as yesterday. A chance of rain showers tonight, will give way to likely showers on Friday. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Max temperature.....Around 62. Min humidity........44 percent. 20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph late in the morning, then increasing to 6 to 7 mph late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....North around 7 mph shifting to the southeast 6 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......2000-3200 ft AGL. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor (139.0). TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........56 55 35 16 23 25 69 83 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............54 56 58 60 61 62 62 61 RH..............59 55 51 49 48 46 44 46 20 ft wind dir..NE NE E E E E E E 20 ft wind spd..6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 20 ft wind gust.13 13 16 16 16 18 18 18 Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 2.6 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.2 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Transp wind dir.N N E SE SE SE SE SE Transp wind spd.7 7 6 7 8 8 9 9 Vrate kt-ft.....139 178 153 219 255 242 236 201 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain showers early in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms late in the evening. Patchy fog early in the morning. Min temperature.....Around 45. Max humidity........97 percent. 20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the evening. Transport winds.....East 8 to 12 mph shifting to the south 8 to 9 mph after 3 am. Mixing height.......500-1800 ft AGL. Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor (37.0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........75 80 77 76 76 83 84 75 65 73 81 89 Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH Temp............58 55 52 49 48 48 48 47 47 48 48 49 RH..............51 55 66 74 77 77 77 79 79 83 93 97 20 ft wind dir..E E E E E E E E E E E E 20 ft wind spd..7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 20 ft wind gust.17 17 17 14 14 14 10 10 10 8 8 8 Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Haines index....4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Transp wind dir.E E E E E E E SE SE S SE S Transp wind spd.10 12 10 12 10 10 9 10 8 8 9 8 Vrate kt-ft.....184 173 118 118 59 53 51 54 37 38 44 38 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain showers early in the morning, then rain showers likely early in the morning. Max temperature.....Around 70. Min humidity........59 percent. 20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming south 6 to 7 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the morning. Transport winds.....South 8 to 13 mph shifting to the northwest late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......400-2200 ft AGL increasing to 2600-2700 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor (39.0). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........83 71 84 91 93 90 Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ S CHC S CHC S CHC Temp............49 53 60 65 67 67 RH..............97 91 66 60 61 64 20 ft wind dir..SE SE S SW SW NW 20 ft wind spd..5 5 7 8 8 8 20 ft wind gust.8 8 12 14 14 14 Mix hgt (ft)....400 500 1100 1700 1800 2600 Haines index....2 3 3 3 5 5 Transport wind..S 9 S 8 S 10 SW 13 W 10 NW 13 Vrate kt-ft.....40 40 110 209 188 312 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR $$ Forecaster...JZ Requested by...Corey Smith Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412945.1/APX .DELDT 05/02/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov