####018006194#### FNUS73 KAPX 020900 FWSAPX Spot Forecast for Allen Road SVE RX...USDA Forest Service National Weather Service Gaylord MI 500 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 02. If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...Clouds will be on the increase at the burn site late today, but no rain is expected until tonight. Winds will be light this morning, becoming northeast by ignition, then east to southeast and a touch gusty this afternoon. Humidity levels will not be as dry as yesterday. A chance of rain showers tonight, will give way to likely showers on Friday. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Max temperature.....Around 62. Min humidity........44 percent. 20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph late in the morning, then shifting to the southeast 6 to 7 mph late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....North around 7 mph shifting to the southeast 6 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......2000-3200 ft AGL. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor (139.0). TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........55 53 35 16 20 26 68 83 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............54 56 59 61 62 62 62 61 RH..............59 55 49 48 46 46 44 46 20 ft wind dir..NE NE E E E SE SE SE 20 ft wind spd..6 6 8 8 8 7 7 7 20 ft wind gust.13 13 16 16 16 18 18 18 Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.2 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Transp wind dir.N N E SE SE SE SE SE Transp wind spd.7 7 6 7 8 8 9 9 Vrate kt-ft.....139 176 153 219 257 240 236 203 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain showers early in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms late in the evening. Patchy fog early in the morning. Min temperature.....Around 45. Max humidity........97 percent. 20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the evening. Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 12 mph. Mixing height.......500-1800 ft AGL. Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor (38.0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........75 81 78 82 76 84 84 75 66 74 82 90 Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH Temp............59 56 53 50 48 47 47 47 47 48 49 49 RH..............49 53 64 71 77 79 79 79 83 86 89 97 20 ft wind dir..E E E E E E E E E E E E 20 ft wind spd..7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 20 ft wind gust.17 17 17 15 15 15 10 10 10 9 9 9 Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Haines index....4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Transp wind dir.SE E E E E E E SE SE S SE S Transp wind spd.10 12 12 12 10 10 9 12 9 8 9 8 Vrate kt-ft.....185 170 131 112 56 53 48 96 42 38 44 38 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain showers early in the morning, then rain showers likely early in the morning. Max temperature.....Around 70. Min humidity........59 percent. 20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming south around 7 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the morning. Transport winds.....South 9 to 10 mph shifting to the northwest 12 to 14 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......400-2200 ft AGL increasing to 2500-2600 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor (40.0). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........83 70 82 90 94 90 Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ S CHC S CHC S CHC Temp............49 53 60 65 67 68 RH..............97 91 66 62 61 63 20 ft wind dir..SE SE S SW SW NW 20 ft wind spd..5 5 7 8 8 8 20 ft wind gust.8 8 12 14 14 14 Mix hgt (ft)....400 500 1000 1700 1800 2500 Haines index....2 3 3 3 5 5 Transport wind..S 9 S 9 S 10 SW 12 W 10 NW 13 Vrate kt-ft.....40 46 105 190 188 332 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR $$ Forecaster...JZ Requested by...Corey Smith Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412949.1/APX .DELDT 05/02/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov ####018004461#### FNUS73 KGRR 020900 FWSGRR Spot Forecast for Camel, Split and Sock RX...USFS National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 500 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 02. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... Clouds will gradually increase through today, with rain chances increasing in the afternoon, and being likely tonight. A few thunderstorms will be possible beginning late in the afternoon and tonight. .TODAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Temperature.........50 at ignition...Max 71. RH..................74 percent at ignition...Min 40 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise East winds around 6 mph shifting to the southeast 7 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Wind gusts to 25 mph. Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4000 ft AGL. Mixing winds........East 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....100 /poor/ at ignition. Max...800 /excellent/. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM Sky (%).........49 65 80 89 91 92 Weather cov..... S CHC CHANCE LIKELY Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ S CHC S CHC Temp............50 60 66 70 71 70 RH..............74 49 42 40 42 45 20 ft wind......E 6 E 6 SE 7 SE 7 SE 8 SE 9 20 ft wind gust.8 8 12 20 20 14 Mix hgt (ft)....1000 2200 3500 4000 3500 1200 Mixing wind.....E 8 E 8 SE 9 S 15 S 16 SE 15 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 Smoke disprsl...100 180 320 600 800 180 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Temperature.........Min 52. RH..................Max 100 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 13 mph shifting to the southwest toward daybreak. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after midnight. Mixing height.......600 ft AGL. Mixing winds........Southeast 13 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest 10 to 13 mph toward daybreak. Smoke dispersal.....140 (fair) early in the evening decreasing to 60 (poor) late in the night. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of thunderstorms early in the morning. Chance of rain showers through the day. Temperature.........Max 70. RH..................Min 40 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 7 mph shifting to the north around 5 mph in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the morning. Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL. Mixing winds........West 12 to 14 mph shifting to the northwest 8 to 14 mph. Smoke dispersal.....80 (poor) early in the morning increasing to 450 (good) in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. $$ Forecaster...Jeruzal Requested by...Nieland Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412903.0/GRR .DELDT 05/02/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Jeff.nieland@usda.gov