####018007898#### FNUS74 KMOB 021027 FWSMOB Spot Forecast for Chick Cpt 439 440 441...USFS National Weather Service Mobile AL 527 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 02. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. ...HIGH DISPERSION INDEX AROUND 80 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE BURN AREA... .DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and storms today become more widely scattered on Friday. Minimum relative humidity values remain above critical thresholds (around 40 percent today and around 55 percent tomorrow) at the burn site. Southeasterly transport winds this morning will become more southerly by this afternoon. Transport winds then turn more southwesterly by Friday. Max wind gusts will generally be around 10 to 15 mph today. Afternoon dispersions will be good (values around 80). Fog potential and other remarks...Patchy fog development is possible once again tonight at the burn site. Fog may briefly become dense prior to sunrise. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Areas of dense fog early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2. Max temperature.....Around 88. Min humidity........42 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph late in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mixing height.......6400 ft AGL. Mixing height (m)...366-1951 meters AGL. Transport winds.....South 8 to 14 mph. Transport winds m/s.South 4 to 6 meters/second. Dispersion index....14 increasing to 29 late in the morning, then increasing to 43 late in the morning increasing to 57 early in the afternoon increasing to 80 decreasing to 72 late in the afternoon. LVORI...............4. Stability class.....2. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........51 50 49 50 50 52 52 52 53 56 Weather cov.....ARS SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH Weather type....FOG RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 Temp............67 71 76 80 83 86 87 88 87 86 RH..............97 87 74 62 53 46 45 42 43 46 20 FT wind dir..SSE SSE SSE SSE SSE S S S S S 20 FT wind spd..3 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 20 FT wind gust.6 6 7 9 10 12 13 12 12 12 Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.7 2.3 3.2 4.3 5.6 6.0 6.4 6.0 6.0 Mix hgt (km)....0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.8 Transp wind dir.S SSE SSE SSE S S S S S S Transp wind spd.8 9 10 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 Trans wind dir..S SSE SSE SSE S S S S S S Trans spd (m/s).4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 Dispersion idx..10 17 29 43 57 75 84 76 72 72 LVORI...........7 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. LAL.................2 until 1900, then 1. Min temperature.....Around 66. Max humidity........100 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening and overnight becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. Mixing height (m)...122-1829 meters AGL. Transport winds.....South 7 to 14 mph. Transport winds m/s.South 3 to 6 meters/second. Dispersion index....72 decreasing to 6. LVORI...............5. Stability class.....4. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........58 61 59 58 56 59 62 65 68 70 73 71 Weather cov.....SCH Weather type....RW Tstm cov........SCH Chc of pcpn (%).20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 LAL.............2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............84 80 76 74 72 71 70 70 69 68 68 66 RH..............51 60 71 76 84 87 90 90 93 97 97 100 20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S SSE 20 FT wind spd..8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 20 FT wind gust.12 12 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 Mix hgt (kft)...6.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 Mix hgt (km)....1.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S Transp wind spd.14 13 12 12 10 9 10 9 7 8 8 7 Trans wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S Trans spd (m/s).6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 Dispersion idx..72 9 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 LVORI...........1 3 3 4 4 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Slight chance of showers in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2. Max temperature.....Around 84. Min humidity........55 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL. Mixing height (m)...152-1036 meters AGL. Transport winds.....South 6 to 13 mph. Transport winds m/s.South 3 to 6 meters/second. Dispersion index....7 increasing to 41. LVORI...............5. Stability class.....2. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........68 66 67 68 69 68 68 67 68 68 69 67 Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH Chc of pcpn (%).10 20 20 20 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 30 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 Temp............66 66 70 74 79 81 84 84 84 83 83 82 RH..............100 100 93 82 72 65 57 55 55 55 55 56 20 FT wind dir..SSE SSE SSE S S S S SSW SSW S S S 20 FT wind spd..3 3 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 20 FT wind gust.6 6 7 8 9 10 13 14 14 14 13 12 Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.3 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Mix hgt (km)....0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S SSW SW SSW S SSW Transp wind spd.6 6 7 10 8 10 12 12 13 13 12 10 Trans wind dir..S S S S S S S SSW SW SSW S SSW Trans spd (m/s).3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 4 Dispersion idx..3 6 10 18 25 33 39 45 37 38 37 37 LVORI...........9 8 6 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 $$ Forecaster...96 Requested by...Ryan Barnett Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412925.0/MOB .DELDT 05/02/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL ryan.barnett@usda.gov