####018006994#### FNUS73 KBIS 021106 FWSBIS Spot Forecast for Hb-29/30/31...USFWS National Weather Service Bismarck ND 606 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 02. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Partly cloudy skies at the time of ignition will increase through the morning as rain showers becoming more likely through the afternoon and into the evening, possibly with some isolated thunderstorms. Conditions then dry out overnight, before another round of rain becomes likely Friday morning through Friday evening. Minimum relative humidities at the ignition site will be in the lower 50s this afternoon, increasing to the mid 70s on Friday. Winds will be southeasterly at 5 to 10 miles per hour at the time of ignition, becoming west-northwesterly through the evening and overnight, then strengthening to 10 to 15 miles per hour through the day on Friday. Where isolated thunderstorms do develop this afternoon and evening, gusty and erratic winds are expected. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms late in the afternoon. CWR.................9 percent increasing to 33 percent late in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......50 percent. LAL.................1 until 1500, then 2. Max temperature.....Around 56. Min humidity........54 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South 7 to 9 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (28400 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to fair (49600 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........44 50 58 65 75 65 60 Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC Weather type.... RW RW RW Tstm cov........ ISO ISO ISO CWR.............0 0 10 10 10 30 30 Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 10 20 30 50 LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 2 2 Temp............50 52 53 53 54 53 52 RH..............63 59 57 57 54 57 61 20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE E 20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 7 6 8 9 20 FT wind gust.7 8 9 10 10 11 12 Mix hgt (kft)...4.7 5.9 6.5 6.9 7.1 6.8 5.3 Transp wind dir.S S SE S S S SE Transp wind spd.7 7 8 8 8 8 9 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Dispr kt-ft/1K..28 36 46 48 50 48 42 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely with isolated thunderstorms in the evening. CWR.................33 percent decreasing to 0 percent. Chance of pcpn......60 percent. LAL.................2 until 2200, then 1. Min temperature.....Around 36. Max humidity........100 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 to 10 mph shifting to the north early in the evening, then shifting to the west-northwest in the late evening and overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 8 to 14 mph shifting to the west 7 to 12 mph in the late evening and overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3300 knot-ft). Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........66 72 76 71 59 60 57 57 62 69 72 75 Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO ISO CWR.............30 30 30 30 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 Chc of pcpn (%).60 50 40 40 30 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 LAL.............2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............51 49 47 44 42 40 40 39 39 38 38 38 RH..............63 68 74 86 96 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 20 FT wind dir..W N N N W W W W W NW NW W 20 FT wind spd..10 9 9 6 5 5 6 8 8 8 9 9 20 FT wind gust.12 14 12 9 9 8 9 12 12 12 14 14 Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 2.8 1.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.8 Transp wind dir.SE E E E W W W W W NW W W Transp wind spd.9 13 14 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 12 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Dispr kt-ft/1K..35 31 23 6 3 5 5 4 4 5 9 8 .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the morning, becoming likely in the afternoon. CWR.................0 percent increasing to 19 percent. Chance of pcpn......70 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 48. Min humidity........75 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph increasing to around 22 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6900 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (71800 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........70 82 86 78 Weather cov.....S CHC CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 10 10 20 Chc of pcpn (%).20 50 50 70 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............38 40 44 46 RH..............100 100 86 78 20 FT wind......NW 10G14 W 11G17 NW 15G20 NW 15G20 Mix hgt (ft)....700 1700 2900 3600 Transport wind..NW 12 W 14 NW 18 W 22 Haines index....3 3 3 3 Dispr kt-ft/1K..7 20 46 67 $$ Forecaster...ADAM Requested by...Calvin Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412977.0/BIS .DELDT 05/02/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL calvin_moldenhauer@fws.gov