####018006965#### FNUS71 KLWX 021234 FWSLWX Spot Forecast for Swan Creek...VDOF National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 834 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 02. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... An upper level ridge will build over the region today leading to hot and dry conditions. A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight into Friday before sinking south this weekend. A secondary cold front and area of low pressure will pass through the area Sunday into early next week. This will result in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms along with cooler conditions. RH values in the 50 to 60 percent range this morning fall back into the 20 to 30 percent range this afternoon. Light west to southwesterly flow is expected today with sunny skies. Winds remain light through Friday with precipitation chances expected to increase Friday night. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). CWR.................0 percent. Max temperature.....Around 91. Min humidity........30 percent. Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming south up to 4 mph late in the afternoon. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....Light west to northwest winds in the morning, then shifting to south to southwest 2 to 5 mph in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (600 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to fair (27400 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........2 6 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............72 79 85 88 89 90 91 91 91 RH..............64 52 41 36 34 33 31 31 30 20 FT wind dir..SW SE E E S S S S S 20 FT wind spd..2 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 6 20 FT wind gust.3 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 Eye lvl wnd dir.SW SE E E S S S S S Eye lvl wnd spd.1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 Eye lvl wnd gst.2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 Transp wind dir.W NW NW NW W SW SW SW S Transp wind spd.1 1 1 2 2 2 3 5 5 Haines index....4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 2 3 8 11 13 21 27 24 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). CWR.................0 percent. Min temperature.....Around 62. Max humidity........84 percent. Eye level winds.....South winds up to 4 mph early in the evening becoming light, then becoming west around 3 mph after 3 am. Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 to 6 mph in the evening, then becoming light in the late evening to overnight, then west round 5 mph after 3 am. Transport winds.....Southwest 2 to 5 mph shifting to the west around 2 mph overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16700 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........10 9 12 11 4 17 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............87 80 73 68 66 63 RH..............36 49 59 70 73 81 20 ft wind......S 6 S 5 SW 3 W 3 W 3 W 5 20 ft wind gust.7 6 5 5 5 6 Eye level wind..S 4 S 3 SW 2 W 2 W 2 W 3 Eye lvl wnd gst. 4 3 3 3 4 Transport wind..S 5 S 2 SW 2 SW 2 W 2 W 2 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..17 0 0 0 0 0 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). CWR.................10 percent. Max temperature.....Around 88. Min humidity........39 percent. Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming south up to 4 mph late in the afternoon. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....Southwest 1 to 9 mph increasing to 13 to 14 mph late in the morning. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (82500 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to excellent (85300 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........21 16 22 33 49 54 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 10 10 Temp............62 66 77 85 87 88 RH..............84 78 60 46 42 39 20 ft wind......W 3 N 2 NE 2 E 3 S 5 S 7 20 ft wind gust.5 3 3 5 6 8 Eye level wind..W 2 N 1 NE 1 E 2 S 3 S 4 Eye lvl wnd gst.3 2 2 3 4 5 Transport wind..W 1 SW 1 SW 9 SW 14 SW 13 S 14 Haines index....5 4 5 5 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..0 0 41 101 93 103 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR FAIR VYGD GOOD VYGD $$ Forecaster...Skeen Requested by...William E Perry Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413013.0/LWX .DELDT 05/02/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Bill.perry@dof.Virginia.gov