####018006141#### FNUS74 KEPZ 021930 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for Collins Park RX...GIla National Forest National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 130 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on May 03. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Friday and Saturday will see relatively light winds for this time of the year, but RH values will drop below 15% in the afternoon with recovery overnight into the 30-40 percent range. Saturday afternoon the winds will increase 5-10kts compared to Friday with gusts near 30mph possible in the afternoon. It is worth noting that a weather system will push through Saturday which will increase 20ft winds to 20+ mph with gusts in the 30-35mph range. This combined with RH values below 15 percent will create critical to extreme fire weather conditions. .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 70. Min humidity........12 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph. Mixing height.......10300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 12 to 17 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (44100 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (143500 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to excellent (175500 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM Sky (%).........1 1 5 4 4 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 Temp............54 62 67 69 69 RH..............29 20 16 13 12 20 ft wind......W 6 W 6 W 8 W 10 W 11 20 ft wind gust.14 14 18 20 20 Mix hgt (ft)....4400 9200 9200 10300 10300 Transport wind..W 12 SW 14 SW 14 W 17 W 17 Haines index....3 4 4 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..44 144 144 176 176 Ventrate Cat....FAIR VYGD VYGD EXNT EXNT .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 42. Max humidity........44 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph with gusts to around 24 mph in the evening becoming light. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 8 to 16 mph shifting to the southwest around 5 mph overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Very good (127500 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (2600 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........5 5 7 13 13 18 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............66 57 52 48 45 43 RH..............13 22 29 34 39 43 20 ft wind......SW 7 SW 7 SW 6 W 2 W 2 W 0 20 ft wind gust.20 20 12 6 6 2 Mix hgt (ft)....8500 8500 500 500 500 500 Transport wind..W 16 W 16 W 8 W 8 SW 5 SW 5 Haines index....5 4 3 3 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..128 128 3 3 3 3 Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 71. Min humidity........10 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 7 to 15 mph with gusts to around 28 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Mixing height.......12400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....South around 6 mph increasing to southwest 18 to 24 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (44800 knot-ft) increasing to excellent (214800 knot-ft) in the late morning and afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........15 16 23 8 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............42 55 65 70 RH..............44 28 14 11 20 FT wind......SE 5 S 7 SW 12G25 SW 15G28 Mix hgt (ft)....5000 5000 11800 12400 Transport wind..S 6 S 6 S 18 SW 24 Haines index....4 4 6 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..45 45 215 247 Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR EXNT EXNT $$ Forecaster...BARHAM Requested by...Silver City Dispatch Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412708.4/EPZ .DELDT 05/02/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov