####018007567#### FNUS71 KLWX 022045 FWSLWX Spot Forecast for Buck Mtn Unit 6/7 RX...USFS National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 445 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 EDT on May 02. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... An upper level ridge will erode and gradually move offshore through Saturday. A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight into Friday before sinking south this weekend. A secondary cold front and area of low pressure will pass through the area Sunday into early next week. This will result in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms along with cooler conditions. .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (25-35 percent). CWR.................10 percent. Min temperature.....Around 61. Max humidity........72 percent. Eye level winds.....Light winds. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Transport winds.....Northwest around 3 mph shifting to the northeast 2 to 6 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16000 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........26 28 30 47 57 32 37 27 27 33 30 26 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 Temp............80 79 77 75 72 70 68 66 65 64 62 61 RH..............41 42 48 50 55 59 61 63 63 65 67 72 20 FT wind dir..W NW N NE E SE E E E E E E 20 FT wind spd..3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 20 FT wind gust.6 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 Eye lvl wnd dir.W NW N NE E SE E E E E E E Eye lvl wnd spd.2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Eye lvl wnd gst.4 4 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 Transp wind dir.NW NE E E NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE Transp wind spd.3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 6 Haines index....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..16 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. CWR.................10 percent increasing to 50 percent. Max temperature.....Around 80. Min humidity........45 percent. Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming southeast up to 5 mph in the afternoon. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 9 mph early in the morning becoming light, then becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....East 6 to 7 mph shifting to the southeast around 16 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1400 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (41300 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........34 24 42 47 69 84 Weather cov..... S CHC CHANCE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ S CHC CHANCE CWR.............0 0 0 0 20 30 Temp............61 62 69 76 80 80 RH..............70 72 63 52 45 47 20 ft wind......E 3 E 3 E 3 E 5 SE 7 SE 9 20 ft wind gust.5 6 5 8 12 13 Eye level wind..E 2 E 2 E 2 E 3 SE 4 SE 5 Eye lvl wnd gst.3 4 3 5 7 8 Transport wind..NE 7 E 7 E 6 SE 7 SE 9 SE 15 Haines index....3 3 3 3 4 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 3 6 13 29 41 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR FAIR .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Rain showers likely through the night. Slight chance of thunderstorms overnight. Patchy fog early in the morning. CWR.................50 percent increasing to 60 percent early in the evening, then decreasing to 50 percent late in the evening increasing to 60 percent overnight. Min temperature.....Around 54. Max humidity........93 percent. Eye level winds.....Southeast winds up to 5 mph. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the evening. Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 16 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (28400 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (6300 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........78 82 89 83 77 88 Weather cov.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC CWR.............50 60 60 50 60 60 Temp............78 72 67 63 61 56 RH..............50 59 65 70 75 86 20 ft wind......SE 9 SE 9 SE 7 SE 6 SE 5 SE 5 20 ft wind gust.15 14 12 10 9 8 Eye level wind..SE 5 SE 5 SE 4 SE 4 SE 3 SE 3 Eye lvl wnd gst.9 8 7 6 5 5 Transport wind..E 16 E 12 SE 12 SE 10 SE 9 SE 8 Haines index....3 2 2 2 2 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..28 10 11 11 8 6 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR $$ Forecaster...Witt Requested by...Aaron Strobel Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413038.0/LWX .DELDT 05/02/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL Aaron.p.strobel@usda.gov,James.Collett@usda.gov