####018006411#### FNUS74 KEPZ 022251 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for UNIT 74 AREA 3 RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 451 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on May 03. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Similar conditions on Friday with very dry air and southwest winds 10 to 15 mph resulting in Excellent smoke transport to the northeast. Overnight and early morning flow will be light (less than 10 mph) continuing out of the west-southwest. No change in humidity day-to-day with poor overnight recoveries. Slight uptick in wind speeds on Saturday, increasing further on Sunday. Extreme fire behavior is possible on Sunday and we will need Red Flags that afternoon. Winds becoming more westerly early next week, remaining breezy each afternoon. No precipitation expected. .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 71. Min humidity........11 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 12 mph. Mixing height.......10800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 9 to 16 mph shifting to the southwest around 19 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (35100 knot-ft) increasing to excellent (168100 knot-ft) in the late morning and afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 6 or high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........4 2 3 3 5 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 Temp............48 58 65 69 71 RH..............37 25 16 12 11 20 ft wind......W 5 W 7 SW 11 SW 11 SW 12 20 ft wind gust.9 16 22 22 24 Mix hgt (ft)....3500 10300 10300 10800 10800 Transport wind..W 9 SW 16 SW 16 SW 19 SW 19 Haines index....3 3 4 5 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..35 168 168 184 184 Ventrate Cat....POOR EXNT EXNT EXNT EXNT .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 40. Max humidity........44 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 11 mph in the evening becoming light. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 12 to 18 mph decreasing to around 7 mph overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Very good (144800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (3600 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........4 to 6 or high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........5 5 6 15 15 23 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............67 56 51 47 44 41 RH..............12 19 26 32 37 43 20 ft wind......SW 11 SW 11 W 8 W 4 W 4 NW 3 20 ft wind gust.22 22 21 9 9 7 Mix hgt (ft)....9100 9100 500 500 500 500 Transport wind..SW 18 SW 18 W 12 W 12 W 7 W 7 Haines index....6 5 4 4 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..145 145 5 5 4 4 Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 71. Min humidity........9 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 8 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Mixing height.......13200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest around 9 mph increasing to 21 to 25 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (57700 knot-ft) increasing to excellent (259200 knot-ft) in the late morning and afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 6 or high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........19 17 21 14 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............40 54 65 70 RH..............44 29 15 9 20 FT wind......W 3G7 S 8G21 S 13G28 SW 15G30 Mix hgt (ft)....5200 5200 12600 13200 Transport wind..SW 9 SW 9 S 21 SW 25 Haines index....4 4 6 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..58 58 259 275 Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR EXNT EXNT .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs around 70. Southwest winds around 13 mph. .MONDAY... Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs around 70. West winds around 17 mph. .TUESDAY... Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds around 13 mph. $$ Forecaster...DENNHARDT Requested by...Silver City Dispatch Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412655.4/EPZ .DELDT 05/02/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV