####018006577#### FNUS71 KCTP 030243 FWSCTP Spot Forecast for Elbow Unit 2...Silvix National Weather Service State College PA 1043 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on May 03. If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service in State College. .DISCUSSION... Sunshine Friday morning will be followed by increasing clouds during the afternoon and nighttime hours. Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely by Friday evening and then continue Saturday. Generally speaking, humidity levels should be somewhat higher on Friday, versus the last two days (Wednesday and Thursday). .FRIDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). LAL.................No Tstms. Max Temperature.....Around 73. Min Humidity........49 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph early in the morning. Mixing Height.......3600 ft AGL. Transport Winds.....Southeast 7 to 12 mph shifting to the south 12 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. LVORI...............3. ADI.................14 to 39. TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%)........... 38 47 50 53 56 52 47 43 49 55 61 Weather Cov....... Weather Type...... Tstm Cov.......... LAL............... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp.............. 50 53 57 61 65 67 69 71 72 73 71 RH................ 80 77 67 60 54 52 51 49 49 49 53 20 FT Wind Dir.... SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S SE SE SE 20 FT Wind Spd.... 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 20 FT Wind Gust... 6 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 Mix Hgt (kft)..... 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 Transp Wind Dir... SE SE S S S S S S S S S Transp Wind Spd... 7 10 10 12 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 LVORI............. 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 ADI............... 14 14 24 24 24 31 31 31 39 39 39 Haines Index...... 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of rain showers late in the evening. LAL.................No Tstms until 2000, then 9-15 strikes until 2300, then No Tstms. Min Temperature.....Around 47. Max Humidity........86 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Mixing Height.......800 ft AGL. Transport Winds.....South 14 to 17 mph. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. LVORI...............3. ADI.................14 to 20. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%)........... 66 72 78 79 80 81 84 86 89 89 90 90 Weather Cov....... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather Type...... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm Cov.......... SCH SCH SCH LAL............... 1 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp.............. 69 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 53 51 50 49 RH................ 57 63 65 67 69 75 74 77 77 83 83 86 20 FT Wind Dir.... SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT Wind Spd.... 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 20 FT Wind Gust... 12 12 12 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 Mix Hgt (kft)..... 3.4 2.9 0.8 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 Transp Wind Dir... S S S SE S S S S S S S S Transp Wind Spd... 14 15 15 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 LVORI............. 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 ADI............... 20 20 20 19 19 19 18 18 18 14 14 14 Haines Index...... 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers early in the morning, then rain showers likely early in the morning. LAL.................No Tstms. Max Temperature.....Around 53. Min Humidity........86 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 11 mph. Mixing Height.......1700 ft AGL. Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 20 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. LVORI...............4. ADI.................24 to 35. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%)........... 87 84 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 92 92 92 Weather Cov....... CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY Weather Type...... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm Cov.......... LAL............... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp.............. 48 48 47 48 49 50 50 51 52 52 52 52 RH................ 86 86 89 93 89 89 89 86 86 86 86 89 20 FT Wind Dir.... SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT Wind Spd.... 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 20 FT Wind Gust... 12 13 14 14 14 14 16 16 17 16 16 16 Mix Hgt (kft)..... 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 Transp Wind Dir... S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE Transp Wind Spd... 15 16 16 16 16 16 17 18 20 18 18 17 LVORI............. 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 ADI............... 24 24 24 28 28 28 35 35 35 32 32 32 Haines Index...... 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ Forecaster...Jurewicz Requested by...Shannon Henry Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413058.0/CTP .DELDT 05/02/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL shannon@silvixforestry.com