####018005955#### FNUS71 KCTP 030912 FWSCTP Spot Forecast for Elbow Unit 2...Silvix National Weather Service State College PA 512 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on May 03. If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service in State College. .DISCUSSION... Dry conditions through this evening followed by an increasing chance for rain overnight. Cloudy and noticeably cooler to start the weekend with periods of rain into Sunday. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). LAL.................No Tstms. Max Temperature.....Around 72. Min Humidity........46 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Mixing Height.......3800 ft AGL. Transport Winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south 10 to 15 mph late in the morning. Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. LVORI...............2. ADI.................16 to 37. TIME (EDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%)........... 42 50 52 53 54 62 70 79 74 70 66 Weather Cov....... Weather Type...... Tstm Cov.......... LAL............... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp.............. 53 54 57 60 63 67 69 71 72 72 72 RH................ 71 71 67 62 58 50 49 47 46 48 48 20 FT Wind Dir.... SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT Wind Spd.... 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 20 FT Wind Gust... 6 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 Mix Hgt (kft)..... 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.8 Transp Wind Dir... E SE S S S S S S S S S Transp Wind Spd... 7 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 LVORI............. 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 ADI............... 16 16 24 24 24 31 31 31 37 37 37 Haines Index...... 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Increasing chance of rain overnight. LAL.................No Tstms. Min Temperature.....Around 47. Max Humidity........83 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Mixing Height.......800 ft AGL. Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 20 mph. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. LVORI...............3. ADI.................13 to 20. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%)........... 68 69 70 72 73 75 77 78 80 81 81 82 Weather Cov....... SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather Type...... RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN Tstm Cov.......... LAL............... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp.............. 70 68 65 62 60 58 56 54 53 52 51 49 RH................ 53 54 60 65 67 72 74 77 77 77 80 83 20 FT Wind Dir.... SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT Wind Spd.... 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 20 FT Wind Gust... 13 13 14 16 16 17 17 14 14 14 14 14 Mix Hgt (kft)..... 3.9 3.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 Transp Wind Dir... S S SE SE S S S S SE SE SE SE Transp Wind Spd... 14 15 14 16 15 16 15 15 15 15 14 14 LVORI............. 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 ADI............... 20 20 20 14 14 14 17 17 17 13 13 13 Haines Index...... 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain likely. LAL.................No Tstms. Max Temperature.....Around 53. Min Humidity........80 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph. Mixing Height.......1900 ft AGL. Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 20 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. LVORI...............4. ADI.................19 to 39. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%)........... 82 83 83 85 88 90 92 94 96 96 96 96 Weather Cov....... CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY Weather Type...... RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN Tstm Cov.......... LAL............... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp.............. 49 48 48 49 49 50 50 51 52 52 52 52 RH................ 80 83 86 86 89 86 89 86 86 86 86 86 20 FT Wind Dir.... SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT Wind Spd.... 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 20 FT Wind Gust... 14 14 14 14 14 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 Mix Hgt (kft)..... 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 Transp Wind Dir... SE SE SE S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE Transp Wind Spd... 13 13 13 15 17 18 20 20 21 21 21 21 LVORI............. 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 ADI............... 19 19 19 31 31 31 39 39 39 37 37 37 Haines Index...... 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ Forecaster...Steinbugl Requested by...Shannon Henry Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413058.0/CTP .DELDT 05/02/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL shannon@silvixforestry.com