####018006492#### FNUS71 KCTP 030922 FWSCTP Spot Forecast for SW Reservoir...USFS National Weather Service State College PA 522 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 03. If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service in State College. .DISCUSSION... Dry conditions this morning followed by an increasing chance for rain this afternoon through tonight. Cloudy and noticeably cooler to start the weekend with periods of rain/showers into Sunday. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. LAL.................No Tstms until 1500, then 9-15 strikes until 1600, then 16-25 strikes. Max Temperature.....Around 80. Min Humidity........33 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing Height.......5500 ft AGL. Transport Winds.....South 10 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. LVORI...............2. ADI.................22 to 29. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%)........... 60 62 63 65 66 64 62 59 Weather Cov....... SCH CHC CHC Weather Type...... RW RW RW Tstm Cov.......... SCH CHC CHC LAL............... 1 1 1 1 1 3 4 4 Temp.............. 65 69 74 76 78 80 79 78 RH................ 50 45 38 36 33 34 35 37 20 FT Wind Dir.... S S S S S S SE SE 20 FT Wind Spd.... 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT Wind Gust... 10 10 7 7 7 7 7 7 Mix Hgt (kft)..... 1.6 1.8 2.9 3.9 4.8 5.5 4.7 4.4 Transp Wind Dir... S S S S S S SW S Transp Wind Spd... 13 12 10 9 9 9 9 8 LVORI............. 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ADI............... 22 22 28 28 28 29 29 29 Haines Index...... 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Rain showers likely through the night. Slight chance of thunderstorms overnight. LAL.................16-25 strikes until 2400, then 9-15 strikes until 0500, then No Tstms. Min Temperature.....Around 52. Max Humidity........90 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing Height.......800 ft AGL. Transport Winds.....South 10 mph. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. LVORI...............4. ADI.................8 to 10. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%)........... 65 71 76 79 81 83 85 87 90 91 91 92 Weather Cov....... CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY Weather Type...... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm Cov.......... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH LAL............... 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 1 Temp.............. 75 72 68 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 RH................ 43 51 65 75 81 84 84 87 90 90 90 90 20 FT Wind Dir.... SE S SE SE SE SE SE SE S SE SE SE 20 FT Wind Spd.... 4 4 6 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 20 FT Wind Gust... 7 7 10 8 10 10 11 12 13 12 12 12 Mix Hgt (kft)..... 3.7 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 Transp Wind Dir... S S S S S S S S S S S SE Transp Wind Spd... 12 12 10 9 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 12 LVORI............. 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 ADI............... 8 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Haines Index...... 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. LAL.................No Tstms. Max Temperature.....Around 59. Min Humidity........80 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 mph. Mixing Height.......1800 ft AGL. Transport Winds.....Southeast 10 to 20 mph increasing to around 25 mph late in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. LVORI...............4. ADI.................21 to 39. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%)........... 93 94 95 94 94 93 93 92 92 92 92 92 Weather Cov....... DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC Weather Type...... RW RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN Tstm Cov.......... LAL............... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp.............. 55 54 53 54 55 56 57 57 58 58 57 57 RH................ 90 90 93 93 93 90 86 86 83 80 83 80 20 FT Wind Dir.... SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT Wind Spd.... 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 20 FT Wind Gust... 13 13 14 14 14 14 16 16 16 17 17 18 Mix Hgt (kft)..... 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 Transp Wind Dir... SE SE SE SE S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE Transp Wind Spd... 14 13 15 16 16 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 LVORI............. 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 ADI............... 21 21 21 32 32 32 37 37 37 39 39 39 Haines Index...... 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ Forecaster...Steinbugl Requested by...Paul Clement Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413046.0/CTP .DELDT 05/03/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL paul.clement@usda.gov