####018004734#### FNUS73 KMPX 031002 FWSMPX Spot Forecast for Erickson WPA...Usfws National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 502 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION... Any morning fog will have dissipated by the ignition time, with temperatures quickly warming from the low 50s to the upper 60s by mid-afternoon. RH values could ip below 40% this afternoon if temperatures overachieve into the 70s, but otherwise will most likely bottom out in the mid 40s. Winds will gradually shift from WSW to more SW into the afternoon with speeds around 10 mph. A wind shift to a more southerly direction is expected this evening, with speeds dropping to around 5 mph. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Temperature.........51 at ignition...Max 68. RH..................74 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 10 to 13 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair /22100 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...excellent /110700 knot-ft/. Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 22 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR PC PC MC MC MC Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............51 55 58 61 63 65 67 68 68 67 64 60 RH..............74 64 55 49 46 43 42 39 39 40 50 55 20 FT wind dir..SW W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S 20 FT wind spd..10 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 9 5 5 20 FT wind gust.16 17 17 17 17 20 20 20 17 14 7 7 Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.9 2.5 3.3 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.8 4.7 2.5 0.8 0.5 Transp wind dir.W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S Transp wind spd.18 20 18 18 22 21 21 22 20 15 8 8 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of rain showers after 3 am. Chance of rain showers after 3 am. Temperature.........Min 46. RH..................Max 89 percent. Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph shifting to the northeast around 6 mph overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Good (32700 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (3000 knot-ft) late in the night. Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast 9 to 10 mph in the late evening and overnight, then shifting to the east 8 to 9 mph overnight shifting to the north after 3 am. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Rain showers in the morning, then chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Temperature.........Max 60. RH..................Min 53 percent. Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph shifting to the east around 7 mph early in the morning, then shifting to the northwest early in the morning. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4700 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (68400 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North 9 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest 17 to 20 mph late in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. $$ Forecaster...Ahasic Requested by...Tracy Ronnander Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413044.0/MPX .DELDT 05/03/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL tracy_ronnander@fws.gov