####018004317#### FNUS73 KMPX 031149 FWSMPX Spot Forecast for Appleton...FWS National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 649 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...For the Appleton Burn, temperatures will warm quickly from the mid-50s at ignition time to the mid to upper 60s by early afternoon. RH values will likely remain around 50% or higher during the afternoon, but could potentially approach 40% if temperatures overachieve by a few degrees. Cloud cover increases during the afternoon with a slight chance of rain showers late this afternoon & evening. Winds will be generally SW to WSW around 10 mph through mid afternoon. A wind shift is expected during the late afternoon or evening, which will result in winds becoming more northerly with speeds still around 10 mph. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of rain showers late in the afternoon. Chance of rain showers late in the afternoon. Temperature.........53 at ignition...Max 63. RH..................54 percent at ignition...Min 36 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise West winds 9 to 12 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair /28200 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...excellent /75400 knot-ft/. Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 13 to 16 mph. Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 6. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM Sky cover.......CLR MCR PC MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ Temp............53 55 58 60 62 63 63 60 55 52 51 50 RH..............54 49 44 42 40 36 38 44 57 66 74 77 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT wind spd..10 9 9 9 10 9 9 12 12 10 9 8 20 FT wind gust.16 14 14 14 16 14 14 17 17 16 14 13 Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.5 5.4 4.6 2.6 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W NW NW NW NW W Transp wind spd.15 15 13 14 15 16 14 15 15 15 12 13 Haines index....6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers. Temperature.........Min 42. RH..................Max 96 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 12 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (24200 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (2900 knot-ft) late in the night. Mixing height.......600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 15 mph. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of rain showers early in the morning. Temperature.........Max 62. RH..................Min 43 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 14 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3200 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (101000 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 14 mph increasing to 16 to 20 mph late in the morning. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. $$ Forecaster...Dye Requested by...Millette Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413067.0/MPX .DELDT 05/03/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL phil_millette@fws.gov