####018004301#### FNUS73 KMPX 031154 FWSMPX Spot Forecast for Sunburg WPA Rx...USFWS National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 654 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...For the Sunburg Rx Burn, temperatures will warm quickly from the upper 40s at ignition time to the mid 60s by early afternoon. RH values will likely remain around 50% or higher during the afternoon, but could potentially approach 40% if temperatures overachieve by a few degrees. Cloud cover increases during the afternoon with a slight chance of rain showers late this afternoon & evening. Winds will be generally SW to WSW around 10 mph through mid afternoon. A wind shift is expected during the late afternoon or evening, which will result in winds becoming more northerly with speeds still around 10 mph. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of rain showers late in the afternoon. Temperature.........44 at ignition...Max 61. RH..................76 percent at ignition...Min 42 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise West winds 9 to 13 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor /7900 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...excellent /74400 knot-ft/. Mixing height.......600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph. Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 6. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR PC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC Weather type.... RW RW RW Tstm cov........ Temp............44 48 51 53 56 58 60 61 61 58 54 51 RH..............76 68 61 54 51 47 44 42 42 49 61 68 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W NW NW 20 FT wind spd..10 13 13 13 13 12 10 12 9 10 12 9 20 FT wind gust.16 20 20 20 20 17 16 17 14 16 17 14 Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.9 3.4 4.1 4.6 5.0 3.5 1.9 1.3 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W NW NW Transp wind spd.15 17 20 18 17 16 16 17 17 15 15 14 Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers. Temperature.........Min 42. RH..................Max 96 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 12 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (24500 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (4100 knot-ft) late in the night. Mixing height.......600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 15 mph. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain showers early in the morning, then slight chance of rain showers early in the morning. Temperature.........Max 60. RH..................Min 46 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 14 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3300 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (93300 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 16 mph increasing to 17 to 20 mph late in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. $$ Forecaster...Dye Requested by...Blatz Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413070.0/MPX .DELDT 05/03/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL david_blatz@fws.gov