####018004376#### FNUS73 KMPX 031159 FWSMPX Spot Forecast for Irving WPA Rx...USFWS National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 659 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...For the Irving WPA Burn, temperatures will warm quickly from the upper 40s at ignition time to the mid 60s by early afternoon. RH values will likely remain around 50% or higher during the afternoon, but could potentially approach 40% if temperatures overachieve by a few degrees. Cloud cover increases during the afternoon with a slight chance of rain showers late this afternoon & evening. Winds will be generally SW to WSW around 10 mph through mid afternoon. A wind shift is expected during the late afternoon or evening, which will result in winds becoming more northerly with speeds still around 10 mph. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Temperature.........45 at ignition...Max 62. RH..................79 percent at ignition...Min 44 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise West winds 8 to 13 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor /8200 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...excellent /68400 knot-ft/. Mixing height.......600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph. Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 6. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR PC MC MC CDY CDY CDY Weather cov..... CHC CHC Weather type.... RW RW Tstm cov........ Temp............45 49 52 55 56 59 61 62 62 60 57 54 RH..............79 68 61 55 51 47 44 44 44 47 55 64 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W SW SW SW W W NW NW 20 FT wind spd..10 12 13 12 12 10 10 10 9 8 9 10 20 FT wind gust.16 17 20 17 17 16 16 16 14 13 14 16 Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.1 4.6 2.9 1.8 1.2 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W SW W W W NW N Transp wind spd.15 18 20 18 17 15 16 15 17 12 12 15 Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain showers likely in the evening, then rain showers overnight. Temperature.........Min 43. RH..................Max 100 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 10 mph shifting to the north around 6 mph early in the morning. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (17500 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (5900 knot-ft) late in the night. Mixing height.......700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain showers early in the morning, then slight chance of rain showers early in the morning. Temperature.........Max 60. RH..................Min 47 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 14 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5300 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (87500 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 17 mph. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. $$ Forecaster...Dye Requested by...Blatz Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413071.0/MPX .DELDT 05/03/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL david_blatz@fws.gov