####018006769#### FNUS71 KAKQ 031201 FWSAKQ Spot Forecast for Piney Grove Preserve - Unit 1...The Nature Conservancy National Weather Service Wakefield VA 801 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 03. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service at 757-899-5734. .DISCUSSION... Light and variable winds are expected through most of this morning. Winds will become southerly for a brief period this afternoon with temperatures warming up into the mid 80s. RHs will average between 40 and 50%. An abrupt increase in easterly winds and drop in temperatures (to the 60s) are then expected as a backdoor cold front drops through the area in the 2-4 PM time range. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of pcpn......10 percent. Max temperature.....Around 88. Min humidity........40 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 10 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 5 mph shifting to the south 7 to 10 mph early in the afternoon, then shifting to the east 15 to 18 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8900 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (45200 knot-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............2. ADI.................13 early in the morning increasing to 62 in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........38 38 42 47 52 55 58 61 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 Temp............78 82 84 85 87 82 78 73 RH..............62 55 49 45 40 47 54 64 20 FT wind dir..W W SW S SE SE E E 20 FT wind spd..5 4 3 4 4 6 8 11 20 FT wind gust.7 6 5 6 6 11 14 18 Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 3.2 4.3 5.5 6.6 5.0 3.4 1.8 Transp wind dir.SW SW SW S S SE E E Transp wind spd.5 3 3 5 7 10 15 18 LVORI...........2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 ADI.............13 14 18 29 51 60 62 41 Haines index....5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 10 13 20 37 45 44 28 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR FR FR PR .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of rain early in the evening. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. Min temperature.....Around 58. Max humidity........96 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 9 mph in the evening becoming light, then becoming east 5 to 6 mph overnight becoming light. Mixing height.......600 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 10 to 18 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (23400 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (5800 knot-ft) late in the night. LVORI...............5. ADI.................7 to 35. Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........63 65 68 66 68 71 74 77 80 70 72 74 Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH Weather type.... RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Temp............70 66 62 62 61 60 60 59 59 59 59 60 RH..............68 78 87 84 87 90 90 93 96 96 96 93 20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E E E E E E E 20 FT wind spd..10 9 9 7 6 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 20 FT wind gust.16 15 14 12 9 6 8 9 11 9 8 6 Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 Transp wind dir.E E E E E E E E E E E E Transp wind spd.18 18 16 16 15 14 13 12 10 10 10 12 LVORI...........3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 ADI.............35 16 15 14 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 Vrate kt-ft/1K..23 17 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of rain. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. Max temperature.....Around 75. Min humidity........64 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 8 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 10 to 13 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8200 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (31900 knot-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............4. ADI.................8 to 40. Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........76 80 87 89 85 85 Weather cov.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC Weather type....RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 Temp............60 62 65 69 73 73 RH..............93 87 84 76 68 66 20 ft wind......E 4 E 4 E 6 E 6 SE 7 E 7 20 ft wind gust.7 7 9 11 12 13 Mix hgt (ft)....800 1000 1600 2200 2900 2900 Transport wind..E 12 E 12 E 12 SE 12 SE 10 E 12 LVORI...........6 4 4 3 3 3 ADI.............8 13 23 29 34 37 Haines index....2 3 3 3 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 10 16 21 27 30 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR $$ Forecaster...WRAY Requested by...Bobby Clontz Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413068.0/AKQ .DELDT 05/03/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL bclontz@tnc.org