####018004361#### FNUS73 KMPX 031326 FWSMPX Spot Forecast for Lake Venus WMA...MN DNR National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 826 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...For the Lake Venus WMA Burn, temperatures will be in the mid 50s at ignition and will warm into the low 60s. RH values will likely remain around 45% but could potentially approach 35-40% if temperatures overachieve by a few degrees. Cloud cover increases during the afternoon with a slight chance of rain showers late this afternoon & evening. Winds will be generally SW to WSW around 10 mph through mid afternoon. A wind shift is expected during the late afternoon or evening, which will result in winds becoming more northerly with speeds still around 10 mph. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers late in the afternoon. Temperature.........55 at ignition...Max 60. RH..................50 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 16 mph at ignition...otherwise West winds 14 to 16 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Good /58000 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...excellent /96200 knot-ft/. Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 18 to 22 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P Sky cover.......MCR PC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ Temp............55 57 59 60 60 57 52 49 48 48 46 46 RH..............50 45 42 41 39 49 66 74 80 80 86 86 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W 20 FT wind spd..16 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 9 8 8 7 20 FT wind gust.24 23 23 23 23 21 20 17 14 13 13 10 Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 3.6 4.0 4.9 5.0 3.3 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.7 Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W SW SW W W W Transp wind spd.21 22 22 22 22 18 16 15 13 10 12 10 Haines index....5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers. Temperature.........Min 42. RH..................Max 96 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 13 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (29000 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (3000 knot-ft) late in the night. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 8 to 16 mph. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of rain showers early in the morning. Temperature.........Max 59. RH..................Min 49 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 12 mph shifting to the northwest 13 to 14 mph in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4200 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (82400 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 8 to 17 mph shifting to the northwest around 18 mph late in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. $$ Forecaster...Dye Requested by...Matt Mecklenburg Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413082.0/MPX .DELDT 05/03/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL matt.mecklenburg@state.mn.us