####018006723#### FNUS74 KEPZ 032240 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for UNIT 74 AREA 3 RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 440 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on May 04. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... .DISCUSSION... For Saturday, elevated fire weather conditions are expected due to breezy south-southwest winds and continued dryness. Windier conditions are expected for Sunday as a disturbance moves into the region, creating critical fire danger during the afternoon. Another breezy to windy day is forecast for Monday with lingering breeziness into the middle of next week. Fuels will continue to dry through the forecast period with warmer than normal temperatures. Overnight recoveries will be poor except for Sunday night. .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 73. Min humidity........10 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 7 to 12 mph in the late morning and early afternoon, then shifting to the southwest around 13 mph with gusts to around 25 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......12900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast around 6 mph increasing to south 19 to 22 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (38700 knot-ft) increasing to excellent (222700 knot-ft) in the late morning and afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........23 14 37 37 13 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 Temp............49 58 65 71 72 RH..............35 23 16 12 10 20 ft wind......E 3 SE 7 S 12 S 12 SW 13 20 ft wind gust.6 15 20 20 25 Mix hgt (ft)....800 7300 11300 12900 11900 Transport wind..SE 6 S 13 S 19 SW 22 SW 22 Haines index....3 4 5 6 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..19 83 193 245 245 Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD EXNT EXNT EXNT .SATURDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 38. Max humidity........46 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph with gusts to around 22 mph in the evening and overnight becoming light. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 12 to 21 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (196400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (5700 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........6 6 5 8 8 16 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............69 58 49 45 42 39 RH..............11 17 23 29 36 42 20 ft wind......SW 12 SW 12 SW 10 W 6 W 6 W 3 20 ft wind gust.22 20 18 15 15 9 Mix hgt (ft)....9400 1400 500 500 500 500 Transport wind..SW 21 SW 18 W 14 W 14 W 12 W 12 Haines index....6 5 4 3 4 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..196 66 6 6 6 6 Ventrate Cat....EXNT GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR .SUNDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 70. Min humidity........9 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 12 mph with gusts to around 25 mph increasing to 19 to 21 mph with gusts to around 40 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......8200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest around 14 mph increasing to around 38 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (49200 knot-ft) increasing to excellent (201400 knot-ft) in the late morning and afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........32 52 36 22 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............38 52 64 69 RH..............46 30 16 10 20 FT wind......SW 5G13 SW 12G25 SW 19G35 SW 21G40 Mix hgt (ft)....900 2900 6200 8200 Transport wind..SW 14 SW 21 SW 28 SW 38 Haines index....3 3 4 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 49 161 284 Ventrate Cat....POOR FAIR EXNT EXNT .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds around 19 mph. .TUESDAY... Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds around 13 mph. .WEDNESDAY... Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds around 14 mph. $$ Forecaster...ARONSON Requested by...Silver City Dispatch Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412655.5/EPZ .DELDT 05/03/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV