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AGUS76 KRSA 301941

HMDRSA



Hydrometeorological Discussion

National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA

1240 PM PDT Sat Mar 30 2024



...MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS COASTAL SOCAL THRU SUN AM...

...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL SOUTH OFFSHORE OF 

CNTRL/SRN CA COAST THE REST OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING SCATTERED 

PRECIP/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...



.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SAT PM - FRI AM)...



The center of the surface low has passed the Monterey Bay now west 

of the Monterey/SLO county border offshore. Surface analysis shows 

the cold front still across soCal past Orange County with the 0.75-

1" PW moisture plume surrounding it along the soCal coast and out to 

sea. Lightning detection has also been picking up some strikes 

within a band of precip rotating around the eastern side of the low 

just offshore of Monterey/SLO counties. Coastal soCal has seen the 

brunt of the precip over the past 6 hours as observations show 

amounts between 0.75-1.50" with locally amounts over 2-2.50" in some 

of the higher elevations. 



The focus of the afternoon update has been over the next 24 hours, 

particularly across coastal srn CA. The moisture plume will continue 

to progress to the south along with the cold front both exiting the 

region some time later this afternoon. This should begin to diminish 

precip for the LA to San Diego Area that is currently seeing a 

steady stream of precipitation thanks to the moisture/cold front. 

The low will continue its slow journey to the south the rest of 

today passing Point Conception tonight. Shower chances across the 

region will persist as the low rotates precip into CA and spins up 

some isolated thunderstorms. There is still some question as to how 

close the heavier band of precip rotating around the core of the low 

will get to the coast as the system passes soCal. No major changes 

were made in the afternoon update, blended in some of the latest WPC 

guidance and higher res models along with manually adjusting the 

current period based on recent observations. It looks like the 

moisture is moving just a bit slower than the models have been 

predicting. This amounted to an increase of 0.10-0.50" in the QPF 

over coastal soCal and similar increases over the northern 

Sierra/parts of nrn NV. QPF through Monday: 0.75-1.75" coastal 

SoCal, 1.25-2.50" Transverse Range/mntns east of San Diego, 0.50-1" 

northern Sierra, 0.50-1.50+" nrn NV mountains, 0.10-0.75" central 

coast/rest of Sierra, and a few hundredths to 0.50" the rest of CA.

Freezing levels 4.5-6.5 kft for most of the region through Sunday 

morning rising from nw to se up to 8-10.5 kft for nw CA early Monday 

morning.



No changes were made to the extended, for further details please see 

the previous discussion.





QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php







AS



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