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AGUS74 KWCO 041542

HMDNWC



National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL

NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL

1015 AM CDT THU APR 4 2024



.Synopsis...

Widespread river flooding across the Ohio River Basin / Midwest and the  

Mid-Atlantic... Potential for flooding impacts early next week across  

ArkLaTex into the Southeast... Snow melt across the Intermountain West...



.Discussion...



.Ohio River Basin / Midwest...

Widespread minor and isolated moderate to major river flooding is ongoing  

and forecast to continue across the region through the end of the week.  

Many rivers are already in recession or are expected to crest in the next  

24 hours, but some of the slow-responding rivers in IL and IN will not  

crest until early next week. Also of note, moderate and major flooding is  

ongoing and forecast all along the Upper Ohio River, with all locations  

forecast to crest by the end of day 2 (Fri). Rivers are expected to recede  

unimpeded.



.Mid-Atlantic...

Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is ongoing and forecast across  

Central PA, NJ, CT, RI, MD, and VA in response to 2 - 5" of rainfall over  

the last several days (72-hr RFC QPE/MRMS). Many rivers are already in  

recession, but notably the Pawtuxet and Wood rivers in RI and the Passaic  

River in NJ are forecast to crest in moderate flood in the morning hours of  

day 2 (Fri). No significant precipitation is forecast over the next week  

and rivers should be able to route and recede unimpeded.



.ArkLaTex into the Southeast...

There is potential for heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding impacts on  

days 6 - 7 (Tue - Wed) from eastern OK/TX through AR/LA/MS into AL, with up  

to 5" of rainfall possible (WPC 7-day QPF). This region has been fairly wet  

over the past 30 days (RFC QPE 1 - 5"+ positive departures from normal  

precipitation). Confidence remains low in the exact magnitude and placement  

of impacts, although it is worth mentioning that both the NBM and  

GFS-forced National Water Model (NWM) Medium Range Forecasts (MRF) are  

showing widespread small stream responses across the region and MMEFS,  

where available, is showing potential for minor river flooding, so trends  

will continue to be monitored closely.



.Intermountain West...

Snow melt is expected to continue through the end of the week (SNODAS),  

with additional precipitation expected late this week through the weekend.  

This will likely produce rapid rises on mountain streams with very cold  

water.



//Bliss







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