####018001086#### FQAU21 AMMC 020815 40:2:1:31:11:01:00 IDY10240 SECURITE High Seas Forecast for Northern METAREA 8/10/11 NORTHERN AREA: EQUATOR TO 12S, 90E TO 142E AND SOUTHWARD TO COAST, 125E TO 142E Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology For 24 hours commencing 1100 UTC 2 May 2024 Part 1 Warnings Nil. Part 2 Situation at 0600 UTC Trough near 03S090E 02S096E 03S101E. Forecast near stationary. Part 3 Forecast South of line 08S099E 07S111E and line 07S129E 07S142E: Southeasterly quarter winds 15/25 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Low swell. Remainder: Winds not exceeding 20 knots. Slight to moderate seas. Low swell. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over most of area except south of line 08S103E 08S125E 13S142E. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation. Please be aware Wind and wave forecasts are averages. Wind gusts can be 40 per cent stronger than the forecast, and stronger still in squalls and thunderstorms. Maximum waves can be twice the forecast height. WEATHER MELBOURNE The next routine forecast will be issued at 20:15 UTC Thursday. ####018008587#### FQZA31 FAPR 020830 WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 02nd OF MAY 2024 AT 08:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 021000 TO 031000 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/10/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HIDAYA) 2.A POSITION 2024/05/02 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 44.1 E (NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/05/02 18 UTC: 9.2 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45 24H: 2024/05/03 06 UTC: 9.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45 36H: 2024/05/03 18 UTC: 8.7 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75 48H: 2024/05/04 06 UTC: 8.2 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65 60H: 2024/05/04 18 UTC: 7.3 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 0 72H: 2024/05/05 06 UTC: 6.1 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. TRISTAN : N to NW 35 to 45 in places in the south-east from mid- period. 2. CAPE WEST: N to NW 35 in the south-east at first. 3. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: S to SE 35 in the extreme north. 4. MARION FORTIES EAST: W to SW 35 in the south-east until mid-period. SYNOPTIC CHART 06:00Z ===================== High 1020 hPa 43s33e Low 1010 hPa 20s12e Low 984 hPa 47s08e Low 984 hPa 52s02e Low 995 hPa 09s44e 1. Cold Front: 26s02w 31s04w 36s08e 41s09e 46s02e into 47s08e AREA FORECAST: ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/00N): WIND : S to SE 05 to 15, but SW 10 to 15 in the extreme east. VIS : Good. ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W): WIND : S to SE 15 to 25 in the south-west reaching 30 in the extreme south-east, otherwise W to NW 15 to 25. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the south-east, otherwise S to SE swell. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST): WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, but NW 05 to 15 in the south-east. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the south-west until mid-period while becoming poor to very poor in fog in the extreme north-east. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m in the extreme south-west, S to SW swell. TRISTAN (30S/40SE, 00E/20W): WIND : Variable 05 to 10 in the north-east at first, spreading north- east by the end of the period, otherwise S to SW 15 to 20, becoming N to NW 15 to 25 in the south-west from mid-period, reaching 35 to 45 in places. VIS : Moderate in showers and rain, but good over the central parts. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, except over the central parts, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the extreme south-east at first and south-west at by the end of the period, S to SW swell, becoming NW in the south-west. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E): WIND : N to NW 10 to 20 in the east, reaching 30 to 35 in the south- east at first, otherwise W to SW 10 to 20. VIS : Moderate in showers and rain, but good in the extreme east. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, except in the north-east, S to SW swell but W to NW in the east. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E): WIND : Anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 over the central parts at first, spreading to the east by the end of the period, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20, but N to NE 10 to 20 in the west, becoming NW 10 to 20 in the extreme west by mid-period. VIS : Good. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the east, S to SW swell. DURBAN EAST (32.5S/25S, EAST COAST/55E): WIND : SW 05 to 15 in the north-east at first, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 25 in places in the south-east, but N to NE 10 to 20 in the south-west. VIS : Good, but moderate in showers and rain in the extreme east. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : S to SE 10 to 20, reaching 30 to 35 in the extreme north. VIS : Good, but moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers in the north. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, in the extreme north, E to SE swell. MADAGASCAR EAST: WIND : Variable 05 to 15, but S to SE 10 to 20 in the north, spreading to the south towards the end of the period. VIS : Moderate in showers and thundershowers in places. MARION FORTIES EAST (40S/50S, 35E/50E): WIND : W to SW 15 to 25, reaching 35 in the south-east until mid- period. It will become N to NW 10 to 20 in the extreme west towards the end of the period. VIS : Good, becoming moderate to in showers and rain in the south- west towards the end of the period. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m, except in the north-west, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the south-east, but 7.0m in the extreme south-east until mid- period, SW swell. AREA 2: ======= MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) DATE: 24/05/02 at 0500UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (Wind gusts may be about 40% stronger than the averages given here.). PART 1: WARNING : - Gale force 8 expected over CRO and KER PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSYS, 24/05/02 at 0000 UTC : - High 1025 hPa near 34S/43E moving slowly eastward. - Low 948 hPa near 56S/84E associated with a cold front (CF) axis 56S/84E, 52S/93E, 43S/69E, 31S/46E moving east-south-eastward 25/30 kt. - High 1024 hPa near 43S/30E moving eastward 10/15 kt. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS from 02/05/24 at 0600 UTC to 03/05/24 at 0600UTC : WAM (30S/40S,50E/65E) : Rain and frontal showers with CF. WIND: NW 5 to 6 locally 7 ahead of CF backing southerly 4 to 6 behind CF. SEA : rough to very rough. Long SW swell of 3 to 4 m. VIS : very poor in precipitations. AMS (30S/40S,65E/80E) : Rain and frontal showers with CF. WIND: NW 5 to 7 ahead of CF backing southerly 4 to 5 behind CF and setting up W 5/6 over south-western area at the end. SEA : rough to very rough. Long SW swell of 3 to 4 m. VIS : very poor in precipitations. CRO (40S/50S,50E/65E) : Scattered showers and snow showers over southern area. WIND: W to SW 6 to 8. SEA : very rough becoming high. Long southerly swell 3 to 5 m. VIS : poor to very poor in precipitations. KER (40S/50S,65E/80E) : Showers, rain and frontal squalls with CF. Snow showers over southern area. WIND: NW 7 to 8 ahead of CF front with gusts near front, then temporarily backing southerly 4/5, then increasing W to NW 6 to 7, locally 8. SEA : very rough to high. Long SW swell 2 to 5 m abating. VIS : poor to very poor in precipitations.